Arkansas at Little Rock
Women's · Monday, November 16, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Jack Stephens Center. Arkansas our rank 108 · 4-0; Little Rock our rank 237 · 1-3.
Who will win Arkansas vs Little Rock?
The model gives Arkansas a 75% chance to beat Little Rock, with a projected score of Arkansas 74, Little Rock 66.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | |||||
| RobinsonG · 29 min | 11.0 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 10+ 55% | |
| Thomas-HarrisG · 23 min | 10.9 | 7.3 | 0.7 | 10+ 55% | |
| PrestridgeG · 20 min | 10.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 10+ 50% | |
| TrammellF · 22 min | 9.5 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 10+ 45% | |
| Little Rock | |||||
| AnisiobiF · 29 min | 14.0 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 15+ 43% | |
| JonesF · 28 min | 11.3 | 7.2 | 0.7 | 10+ 58% | |
| BurkG · 29 min | 10.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 10+ 50% | |
| KempG · 30 min | 8.3 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 10+ 35% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without D'Asia Thomas-Harris: Arkansas 70%Little Rock 30%
The white mark is the call with her: Arkansas 75%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Arkansas without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | ||||
| D'Asia Thomas-Harris | 1.6 | 70% | −5 | 73–67 |
| Emily Robinson | 1.5 | 71% | −4 | 73–67 |
| Jianna Morris | 1.4 | 71% | −4 | 74–67 |
| Beautiful Waheed | 1.4 | 71% | −4 | 74–67 |
Change is in Arkansas's win chance, in points. Scores read Arkansas, then Little Rock. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Arkansas 4-0WWWW
- Nov 12W 95-90vs AR-Pine Bluff
- Nov 9W 89-81vs Kansas City
- Nov 6W 89-59vs N'Western St
- Nov 2W 127-48vs LSU N Orleans
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 100.0 and allowing 69.5
Little Rock 1-3WLLL
- Nov 12L 64-71vs North Florida
- Nov 9L 48-62at Memphis
- Nov 6L 50-73vs Missouri
- Nov 2W 108-12vs Central Baptist
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 67.5 and allowing 54.5
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Arkansas | Little Rock | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 97.0 99th | 83.6 275th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 92.7 144th | 95.2 200th |
| Possessions a game | 77.3 1st | 71.4 234th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.5% 245th | 40.2% 358th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.2% 284th | 47.1% 272nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.3% 168th | 22.1% 70th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 37.6% 22nd | 31.2% 269th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 170th | 0.21 194th |
The widest gap: Arkansas's defense (144th) against Little Rock's offense (275th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Arkansas 36, Little Rock 31
- First-half margin
- Arkansas by 4.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.5
- Projected second half
- Arkansas 39, Little Rock 35
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Arkansas, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 51.5 scored, 33.5 allowed
- Little Rock, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 29.5 scored, 24.2 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Arkansas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily RobinsonG | 29 | 11.0 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
| Jianna MorrisG | 24 | 9.0 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 39% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Grace McCallopG | 23 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| D'Asia Thomas-HarrisG | 23 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 7+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 23% | |||||
| Daniah TrammellF | 22 | 9.5 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Whitley RogersG | 20 | 9.4 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| 51% to play · 10+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Kyiah PrestridgeG | 20 | 10.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Kateri PooleG | 18 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
Missed the last game: Whitley Rogers (22 min a game).
Little Rock
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talia KempG | 30 | 8.3 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 43% · 4+ ast 54% | |||||
| Brenna BurkG | 29 | 10.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Neso AnisiobiF | 29 | 14.0 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 8+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Senoj JonesF | 28 | 11.3 | 7.2 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 7+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Mya CottoG | 27 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Payton FutchG | 15 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Blessing TeamerF | 13 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 15% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
| Pearson McVayF | 10 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 17% · 3+ reb 41% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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