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High Point v Arkansas

Women's · Tuesday, November 24, 2026, 6:30 PM ET at Viejas Arena. High Point our rank 133 · 4-0; Arkansas our rank 108 · 4-0.

Who will win High Point vs Arkansas?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Arkansas a 54% chance to beat High Point, with a projected score of Arkansas 73, High Point 72.

To winArkansas 54%High Point 46%
Projected score72–73High Point, then Arkansas
Margin1.3Arkansas · no line posted
Total145.1no line posted
First half34–35Arkansas ahead 51%
High Point by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20Arkansas by 30Model: Arkansas by 1.3High Point by 30by 10by 10Arkansas by 30Model: Arkansas by 1.3

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Arkansas
RobinsonG · 30 min11.03.62.710+ 56%
Thomas-HarrisG · 23 min10.87.20.610+ 54%
PrestridgeG · 19 min9.94.51.710+ 48%
TrammellF · 22 min9.52.70.410+ 44%
High Point
FeldmanG · 33 min16.04.64.115+ 55%
WoodardF · 32 min12.18.12.010+ 63%
TippnerG · 31 min11.26.92.010+ 57%
GerdesF · 27 min9.84.81.310+ 47%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit her

Without D'Asia Thomas-Harris: High Point 51%Arkansas 49%

The white mark is the call with her: Arkansas 54%.

PlayerPoints a game she addsArkansas without herChangeProjected score
Arkansas
D'Asia Thomas-Harris1.649%−573–72
Emily Robinson1.549%−573–72
Jianna Morris1.450%−473–73
Beautiful Waheed1.450%−473–73
High Point
Juliann Woodard2.765%+1171–75
Meredith Tippner1.259%+571–74
Taylor Feldman1.259%+571–74
Peyton Gerdes1.159%+571–74

Change is in Arkansas's win chance, in points. Scores read High Point, then Arkansas. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    High Point 4-0WWWW

    1. Nov 11W 67-54at East Carolina
    2. Nov 7W 78-71at Ball State
    3. Nov 4W 75-46vs Wingate
    4. Nov 2W 88-39vs Lees McRae
    Last 4
    4–0, scoring 77.0 and allowing 52.5

    Arkansas 4-0WWWW

    1. Nov 12W 95-90vs AR-Pine Bluff
    2. Nov 9W 89-81vs Kansas City
    3. Nov 6W 89-59vs N'Western St
    4. Nov 2W 127-48vs LSU N Orleans
    Last 4
    4–0, scoring 100.0 and allowing 69.5

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    High PointArkansas
    Points scored per 100 possessions91.6 156th97.0 99th
    Points allowed per 10090.3 113th92.7 144th
    Possessions a game72.7 115th77.3 1st
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)46.7% 113th44.5% 245th
    Opponents' shooting44.0% 88th47.2% 284th
    Turnovers, share of possessions22.1% 72nd23.3% 168th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses33.0% 168th37.6% 22nd
    Free throws per shot0.20 263rd0.21 170th

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    High Point 34, Arkansas 35
    First-half margin
    Arkansas by 0.8
    First-half points, both teams
    68.8
    Projected second half
    High Point 38, Arkansas 38
    Second-half points, both teams
    76.3
    Tied at the half
    4%
    High Point, first halves so far
    Led 4 of 4 · 38.0 scored, 22.5 allowed
    Arkansas, first halves so far
    Led 4 of 4 · 51.5 scored, 33.5 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    High Point

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Taylor FeldmanG3316.04.64.11.2
    15+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 46% · 4+ ast 56%
    Brecken SnotherlyG327.55.31.60.4
    5+ pts 69% · 5+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 44%
    Juliann WoodardF3212.18.12.01.5
    10+ pts 63% · 8+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 57%
    Meredith TippnerG3111.26.92.00.6
    10+ pts 57% · 7+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 56%
    Peyton GerdesF279.84.81.30.9
    10+ pts 47% · 5+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 54%
    Rylee BessG237.42.11.51.3
    5+ pts 68% · 2+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 41%
    Khloe LemonG135.41.60.50.8
    5+ pts 51% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 51%

    Arkansas

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Emily RobinsonG3011.03.62.71.4
    10+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 48%
    Jianna MorrisG248.92.31.51.2
    10+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 61% · 2+ ast 42%
    Grace McCallopG245.63.02.10.4
    5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 59%
    D'Asia Thomas-HarrisG2310.87.20.60.3
    10+ pts 54% · 7+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 23%
    Daniah TrammellF229.52.70.40.4
    10+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 33%
    Whitley RogersG219.32.72.11.2
    51% to play · 10+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 58%
    Kyiah PrestridgeG199.94.51.71.0
    10+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 49%
    Kateri PooleG185.01.81.70.9
    5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 47%

    Missed the last game: Whitley Rogers (22 min a game).

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

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