Jacksonville at UCF
Women's · Tuesday, November 24, 2026, 6:30 PM ET at Addition Financial Arena. Jacksonville our rank 164 · 1-2; UCF our rank 154 · 3-1.
Who will win Jacksonville vs UCF?
The model gives UCF a 66% chance to beat Jacksonville, with a projected score of UCF 75, Jacksonville 70.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF | |||||
| Chandler-RobertsF · 33 min | 16.2 | 6.7 | 1.4 | 15+ 56% | |
| BlasighG · 34 min | 13.5 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 15+ 40% | |
| JonesG · 29 min | 12.1 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 10+ 63% | |
| RosebyG · 27 min | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 10+ 62% | |
| Jacksonville | |||||
| WeaverG · 28 min | 14.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 15+ 43% | |
| MamoudouF · 32 min | 13.7 | 7.5 | 1.3 | 15+ 41% | |
| SmithG · 26 min | 12.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 10+ 64% | |
| RudolphG · 25 min | 12.1 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 10+ 63% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Vittoria Blasigh: Jacksonville 39%UCF 61%
The white mark is the call with her: UCF 66%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | UCF without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF | ||||
| Vittoria Blasigh | 1.6 | 61% | −5 | 71–74 |
| Caitlyn Jones | 1.1 | 63% | −3 | 71–75 |
| Mahogany Chandler-Roberts | 1.0 | 63% | −3 | 71–75 |
| Key Roseby | 0.9 | 63% | −3 | 70–75 |
| Jacksonville | ||||
| Tatum Brown | 2.2 | 72% | +6 | 69–76 |
| Aniah Smith | 1.4 | 70% | +4 | 69–76 |
| Sharmela Reid | 0.8 | 68% | +2 | 70–76 |
| Mychal White | 0.7 | 68% | +2 | 70–75 |
Change is in UCF's win chance, in points. Scores read Jacksonville, then UCF. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Jacksonville 1-2WLL
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 72.0 and allowing 77.3
UCF 3-1WLWW
- Nov 11W 64-59vs Austin Peay
- Nov 9W 85-59vs South Alabama
- Nov 5L 65-95at Florida
- Nov 3W 85-56vs Florida A&M
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 74.8 and allowing 67.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Jacksonville | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 95.1 115th | 93.4 135th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 97.2 240th | 94.6 184th |
| Possessions a game | 74.2 37th | 72.3 148th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.3% 189th | 49.4% 22nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.0% 343rd | 44.0% 91st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.3% 85th | 24.9% 282nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 38.8% 5th | 29.8% 325th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 6th | 0.22 129th |
The widest gap: UCF's offense (135th) against Jacksonville's defense (240th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Jacksonville 33, UCF 36
- First-half margin
- UCF by 2.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.8
- Projected second half
- Jacksonville 37, UCF 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Jacksonville, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 29.0 scored, 42.0 allowed
- UCF, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 35.8 scored, 29.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Jacksonville
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samirah MamoudouF | 32 | 13.7 | 7.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 8+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Tatum BrownG | 30 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| J'Niya WeaverG | 28 | 14.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Aniah SmithG | 26 | 12.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Coco RudolphG | 25 | 12.1 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Mariyah BrownF | 18 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Sharmela ReidF | 14 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 79% to play · 5+ pts 18% · 3+ reb 54% | |||||
| Mychal WhiteG | 13 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 31% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
UCF
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vittoria BlasighG | 34 | 13.5 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Mahogany Chandler-RobertsF | 33 | 16.2 | 6.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 56% · 7+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Caitlyn JonesG | 29 | 12.1 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 55% · 5+ ast 44% | |||||
| Candace KpetikouC | 28 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 7+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| Key RosebyG | 27 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 2+ ast 46% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Nyla McFaddenG | 21 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Jasmynne GibsonF | 18 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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