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Probable Stats / Women's / Tuesday, November 24

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South Carolina v UConn

Women's · Tuesday, November 24, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Mohegan Sun Arena. South Carolina AP 1, our rank 1 · 3-0; UConn AP 4, our rank 2 · 3-1.

Who will win South Carolina vs UConn?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives South Carolina a 61% chance to beat UConn, with a projected score of South Carolina 74, UConn 70.

To winSouth Carolina 61%UConn 39%
Projected score74–70South Carolina, then UConn
Margin3.3South Carolina · no line posted
Total144.0no line posted
First half35–33South Carolina ahead 56%
South Carolina by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20UConn by 30Model: South Carolina by 3.3South Carolina by 30by 10by 10UConn by 30Model: South Carolina by 3.3

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
South Carolina
EdwardsF · 28 min14.45.52.115+ 45%
JohnsonG · 27 min11.73.32.010+ 60%
KittsF · 22 min10.47.62.010+ 51%
MakeerG · 28 min9.93.51.810+ 48%
UConn
StrongF · 30 min20.37.13.120+ 51%
PopovicG · 29 min11.23.82.410+ 57%
ArnoldG · 29 min8.82.03.710+ 39%
QuinonezF · 23 min8.43.12.110+ 36%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit her

Without Joyce Edwards: South Carolina 33%UConn 67%

The white mark is the call with her: South Carolina 61%.

PlayerPoints a game she addsSouth Carolina without herChangeProjected score
South Carolina
Joyce Edwards8.633%−2869–75
Jordan Lee6.839%−2270–74
Agot Makeer6.639%−2270–74
Tessa Johnson6.539%−2270–74
UConn
Sarah Strong10.587%+2679–65
KK Arnold7.180%+1977–67
Blanca Quinonez6.178%+1777–67
Ashlynn Shade5.075%+1476–68

Change is in South Carolina's win chance, in points. Scores read South Carolina, then UConn. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    South Carolina 3-0WWW

    1. Nov 12W 65-44at ClemsonDidn't cover −26.5 · Under 133.5
    2. Nov 8W 84-39vs North CarolinaCovered −16.5 · Under 144.5
    3. Nov 2W 101-93vs Maryland
    Last 3
    3–0, scoring 83.3 and allowing 58.7
    Against the spread, this season
    1–1
    Totals, this season
    0 over, 2 under

    UConn 3-1WLWW

    1. Nov 12W 87-55at Ohio StateCovered −9.5 · Under 147.5
    2. Nov 8W 91-79vs IowaDidn't cover −13.5 · Over 138.5
    3. Nov 5L 66-77at MichiganDidn't cover −8.5 · Over 142.5
    4. Nov 2W 100-35vs Cornell
    Last 4
    3–1, scoring 86.0 and allowing 61.5
    Against the spread, this season
    1–2
    Totals, this season
    2 over, 1 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    South CarolinaUConn
    Points scored per 100 possessions121.4 1st120.7 2nd
    Points allowed per 10066.2 1st69.5 2nd
    Possessions a game73.3 76th73.7 57th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)48.2% 41st52.8% 1st
    Opponents' shooting41.2% 14th44.2% 103rd
    Turnovers, share of possessions22.0% 65th22.0% 61st
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses37.9% 17th34.9% 84th
    Free throws per shot0.25 22nd0.18 341st

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    South Carolina 35, UConn 33
    First-half margin
    South Carolina by 1.9
    First-half points, both teams
    68.3
    Projected second half
    South Carolina 39, UConn 37
    Second-half points, both teams
    75.7
    Tied at the half
    4%
    South Carolina, first halves so far
    Led 3 of 3 · 41.7 scored, 23.7 allowed
    UConn, first halves so far
    Led 3 of 4 · 41.2 scored, 30.0 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    South Carolina

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Jordan LeeG299.22.51.70.9
    10+ pts 42% · 2+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 55%
    Joyce EdwardsF2814.45.52.10.1
    15+ pts 45% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 60%
    Agot MakeerG289.93.51.80.8
    10+ pts 48% · 2+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 51%
    Tessa JohnsonG2711.73.32.01.7
    10+ pts 60% · 2+ ast 57% · 2+ threes 45%
    Chloe KittsF2210.47.62.00.2
    10+ pts 51% · 8+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 55%
    Ashlyn WatkinsF173.85.00.70.0
    5+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 18%
    Jerzy RobinsonG176.62.61.20.6
    5+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 43%

    UConn

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Sarah StrongF3020.37.13.12.3
    20+ pts 51% · 7+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 57%
    KK ArnoldG298.82.03.70.5
    10+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 55% · 4+ ast 49%
    Jovana PopovicG2911.23.82.41.0
    10+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 56%
    Ashlynn ShadeG256.52.41.71.0
    5+ pts 61% · 2+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 57%
    Blanca QuinonezF238.43.12.11.0
    10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 58%
    Olivia VukosaC216.46.81.40.1
    5+ pts 60% · 7+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 38%
    Kayleigh HeckelG143.72.01.20.3
    5+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 31%
    Jana El AlfyC133.53.40.80.0
    5+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 19%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Tue, Nov 24

    All games
    1. 1 PMprojected 64-80Davidson vs Notre Dame, women's: game page
    2. 3:30 PMprojected 67-74Florida vs West Virginia, women's: game page
    3. 4 PMprojected 82-65Oklahoma vs Montana St, women's: game page
    4. 5 PMprojected 72-57UCLA vs St John's, women's: game page
    5. 6:30 PMprojected 72-73High Point vs Arkansas, women's: game page
    6. 6:30 PMprojected 72-82Ball State at Temple, women's: game page
    South Carolina next: vs USC, Sun, Nov 15 · 83%UConn next: at Louisville, Sun, Nov 15 · 73%South Carolina: schedule and oddsUConn: schedule and odds