Oklahoma v Montana St
Women's · Tuesday, November 24, 2026, 4:00 PM ET at The Reef. Oklahoma AP 14, our rank 13 · 3-0; Montana St our rank 64 · 2-0.
Who will win Oklahoma vs Montana St?
The model gives Oklahoma a 90% chance to beat Montana State, with a projected score of Oklahoma 82, Montana St 65.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma | |||||
| BellF · 24 min | 14.1 | 7.7 | 1.7 | 15+ 43% | |
| ChavezG · 23 min | 12.7 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 15+ 35% | |
| WilliamsF · 25 min | 11.3 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 10+ 57% | |
| StewartF · 20 min | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 10+ 43% | |
| Montana St | |||||
| HarrisF · 26 min | 14.7 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 15+ 47% | |
| ChirrickG · 28 min | 11.3 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 10+ 58% | |
| EricksonF · 17 min | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 5+ 64% | |
| PhilipG · 24 min | 6.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 5+ 61% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Sahara Williams: Oklahoma 80%Montana St 20%
The white mark is the call with her: Oklahoma 90%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Oklahoma without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma | ||||
| Sahara Williams | 5.6 | 80% | −10 | 79–68 |
| Brooklyn Stewart | 4.0 | 83% | −7 | 80–67 |
| Caya Smith | 4.0 | 83% | −7 | 80–67 |
| Isimenme Ozzy-Momodu | 4.0 | 84% | −6 | 80–67 |
| Montana St | ||||
| Taylee Chirrick | 4.8 | 95% | +5 | 84–63 |
| Addison Harris | 2.7 | 93% | +3 | 83–64 |
| Ella Johnson | 2.5 | 93% | +3 | 83–64 |
| Jamison Philip | 1.9 | 92% | +2 | 83–64 |
Change is in Oklahoma's win chance, in points. Scores read Oklahoma, then Montana St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Oklahoma 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 98-44vs San José St
- Nov 8W 95-38vs Morgan St
- Nov 2W 91-79vs North Carolina
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 94.7 and allowing 53.7
Montana St 2-0WW
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 78.5 and allowing 51.5
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Oklahoma | Montana St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 113.7 10th | 97.4 95th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 79.2 18th | 83.2 47th |
| Possessions a game | 76.3 5th | 74.1 43rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.8% 56th | 44.6% 238th |
| Opponents' shooting | 41.6% 18th | 45.9% 204th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.5% 182nd | 24.3% 249th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 41.8% 1st | 33.7% 139th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 260th | 0.23 78th |
The widest gap: Oklahoma's defense (18th) against Montana St's offense (95th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Oklahoma 40, Montana St 30
- First-half margin
- Oklahoma by 9.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.9
- Projected second half
- Oklahoma 42, Montana St 35
- Second-half points, both teams
- 77.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Oklahoma, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 43.7 scored, 27.3 allowed
- Montana St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 43.0 scored, 26.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Oklahoma
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sahara WilliamsF | 25 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 6+ reb 56% · 4+ ast 44% | |||||
| LeeLee BellF | 24 | 14.1 | 7.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 8+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Aaliyah ChavezG | 23 | 12.7 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 |
| 25% to play · 15+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 54% · 4+ ast 45% | |||||
| Caya SmithF | 22 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Jordan SpeiserG | 21 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Keziah LoftonG | 21 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Brooklyn StewartF | 20 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Sa'Myah SmithF | 20 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 6+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
Missed the last game: Aaliyah Chavez (25 min a game).
Montana St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylee ChirrickG | 28 | 11.3 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 6+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Ella JohnsonF | 26 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
| Addison HarrisF | 26 | 14.7 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Jamison PhilipG | 24 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 40% | |||||
| Isobel BunyanG | 19 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Brianne BaileyG | 19 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Dylan PhilipG | 18 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Teagan EricksonF | 17 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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