Davidson v Notre Dame
Women's · Tuesday, November 24, 2026, 1:00 PM ET at Imperial Arena. Davidson our rank 68 · 1-3; Notre Dame AP 13, our rank 17 · 3-0.
Who will win Davidson vs Notre Dame?
The model gives Notre Dame a 91% chance to beat Davidson, with a projected score of Notre Dame 80, Davidson 64.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | |||||
| HidalgoG · 29 min | 21.6 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 20+ 58% | |
| St. RoseG · 27 min | 14.4 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 15+ 45% | |
| MacyF · 25 min | 14.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 15+ 43% | |
| HardyF · 24 min | 13.0 | 8.1 | 0.4 | 15+ 36% | |
| Davidson | |||||
| DonovanG · 29 min | 14.0 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 15+ 43% | |
| BruyndoncxG · 30 min | 12.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 15+ 34% | |
| BessellG · 25 min | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 5+ 57% | |
| Alvarez CastellanosG · 27 min | 4.5 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 5+ 41% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Hannah Hidalgo: Davidson 28%Notre Dame 72%
The white mark is the call with her: Notre Dame 91%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Notre Dame without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | ||||
| Hannah Hidalgo | 9.1 | 72% | −19 | 69–76 |
| Anaya Hardy | 5.9 | 80% | −11 | 67–77 |
| Madison St. Rose | 5.7 | 81% | −10 | 67–78 |
| Leah Macy | 2.3 | 87% | −4 | 65–79 |
| Davidson | ||||
| Katie Donovan | 3.1 | 94% | +3 | 63–82 |
| Kyra Bruyndoncx | 2.6 | 94% | +3 | 63–82 |
| Ines Garcia Monje | 2.1 | 93% | +2 | 63–81 |
| Emilie Bessell | 2.0 | 93% | +2 | 63–81 |
Change is in Notre Dame's win chance, in points. Scores read Davidson, then Notre Dame. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Davidson 1-3LLWL
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 67.2 and allowing 64.2
Notre Dame 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 108-60vs Detroit Mercy
- Nov 6W 123-40vs StonehillCovered −45.5 · Over 146.5
- Nov 1W 99-75vs Villanova
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 110.0 and allowing 58.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Davidson | Notre Dame | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.2 66th | 113.6 12th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 88.5 85th | 80.8 24th |
| Possessions a game | 70.3 327th | 74.5 24th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.7% 226th | 52.4% 3rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.8% 306th | 42.6% 31st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.0% 20th | 21.1% 22nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.9% 226th | 36.7% 39th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 147th | 0.21 219th |
The widest gap: Notre Dame's offense (12th) against Davidson's defense (85th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Davidson 30, Notre Dame 39
- First-half margin
- Notre Dame by 9.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.5
- Projected second half
- Davidson 35, Notre Dame 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Davidson, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 37.2 scored, 29.8 allowed
- Notre Dame, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 61.5 scored, 21.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Davidson
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyra BruyndoncxG | 30 | 12.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Katie DonovanG | 29 | 14.0 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Elena Alvarez CastellanosG | 27 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 56% · 4+ ast 44% | |||||
| Emilie BessellG | 25 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Ines Garcia MonjeF | 23 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Sharni ReisingerG | 15 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Asha NightingaleF | 15 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| Jasmine TimmersonG | 14 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 18% · 2+ reb 32% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
Notre Dame
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannah HidalgoG | 29 | 21.6 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 0.9 |
| 20+ pts 58% · 6+ reb 55% · 4+ ast 51% | |||||
| Madison St. RoseG | 27 | 14.4 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 56% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Leah MacyF | 25 | 14.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.3 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 6+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 43% | |||||
| Jacy AbiiG | 24 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 6+ reb 53% · 4+ ast 49% | |||||
| Anaya HardyF | 24 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 8+ reb 53% | |||||
| Jenica LewisG | 20 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| Amari BylesG | 15 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Bella RagoneG | 14 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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