Who will win Fresno St vs FGCU?
The model gives Florida Gulf Coast a 77% chance to beat Fresno State, with a projected score of FGCU 70, Fresno St 61.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FGCU | |||||
| LightbourneG · 22 min | 9.6 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 10+ 45% | |
| ZeinstraG · 28 min | 8.7 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 10+ 38% | |
| DouglasG · 25 min | 8.6 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 10+ 38% | |
| RolleG · 24 min | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 10+ 33% | |
 Fresno St | |||||
| ChaseG · 27 min | 11.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 10+ 56% | |
| ReanF · 25 min | 9.4 | 6.6 | 0.8 | 10+ 44% | |
| GrayG · 20 min | 8.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 10+ 38% | |
| MarrG · 25 min | 8.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 10+ 36% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Lily Zeinstra: Fresno St 27%FGCU 73%
The white mark is the call with her: FGCU 77%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | FGCU without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FGCU | ||||
| Lily Zeinstra | 1.8 | 73% | −4 | 62–69 |
| Sinai Douglas | 1.6 | 73% | −4 | 62–69 |
| Eve Alexander | 1.3 | 74% | −3 | 61–70 |
| Denika Lightbourne | 1.3 | 74% | −3 | 61–70 |
| Fresno St | ||||
| Mekhia Chase | 1.3 | 80% | +3 | 60–71 |
| Lola Donez | 1.1 | 80% | +3 | 60–71 |
| Ashlyn Rean | 1.0 | 80% | +3 | 60–71 |
| Jada Hunter | 0.7 | 79% | +2 | 60–71 |
Change is in FGCU's win chance, in points. Scores read Fresno St, then FGCU. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Fresno St 2-1WLW
- Nov 11W 74-56vs New Mexico
- Nov 7L 56-73at Colorado
- Nov 4W 94-32vs UC Merced
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 74.7 and allowing 53.7
FGCU 2-1LWW
- Nov 11W 99-31vs Ave Maria
- Nov 7W 89-59vs Arkansas St
- Nov 3L 50-79at Indiana
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 79.3 and allowing 56.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Fresno St | FGCU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 92.5 143rd | 92.8 140th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 94.7 185th | 88.5 85th |
| Possessions a game | 71.7 211th | 71.9 193rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.7% 110th | 45.3% 187th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.5% 246th | 44.3% 112th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.1% 235th | 23.7% 200th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.9% 51st | 32.6% 194th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 288th | 0.22 98th |
The widest gap: FGCU's defense (85th) against Fresno St's offense (143rd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Fresno St 28, FGCU 34
- First-half margin
- FGCU by 5.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.1
- Projected second half
- Fresno St 32, FGCU 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 68.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Fresno St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 38.7 scored, 28.0 allowed
- FGCU, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 36.0 scored, 22.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Fresno St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mekhia ChaseG | 27 | 11.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Lola DonezG | 26 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Jada HunterG | 26 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 39% | |||||
| Zawadi OgotG | 25 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Ava MarrG | 25 | 8.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Ashlyn ReanF | 25 | 9.4 | 6.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 7+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
| Rubi GrayG | 20 | 8.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Ivy BrownF | 20 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
FGCU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lily ZeinstraG | 28 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 4+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Karina GordonG | 26 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Sinai DouglasG | 25 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Cerina RolleG | 24 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Denika LightbourneG | 22 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Amelia HobsonG | 21 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Ari TurlaG | 15 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Jalei PillowF | 15 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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