Who will win N Arizona vs Fresno St?
The model gives Fresno State a 81% chance to beat Northern Arizona, with a projected score of Fresno St 75, N Arizona 64.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fresno St | |||||
| ChaseG · 26 min | 12.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 15+ 36% | |
| ReanF · 25 min | 11.0 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 10+ 55% | |
| GrayG · 20 min | 10.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 10+ 48% | |
| MarrG · 25 min | 9.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 10+ 46% | |
 N Arizona | |||||
| SmithG · 25 min | 10.7 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 10+ 53% | |
| HawkinsG · 36 min | 9.5 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 10+ 44% | |
| WattsG · 23 min | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 10+ 33% | |
| DavisF · 21 min | 8.0 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 10+ 33% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Mekhia Chase: N Arizona 22%Fresno St 78%
The white mark is the call with her: Fresno St 81%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Fresno St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno St | ||||
| Mekhia Chase | 1.3 | 78% | −3 | 65–75 |
| Lola Donez | 1.1 | 79% | −2 | 65–75 |
| Ashlyn Rean | 1.0 | 79% | −2 | 65–75 |
| Jada Hunter | 0.7 | 79% | −2 | 65–75 |
| N Arizona | ||||
| Madison Watts | 0.6 | 82% | +1 | 64–76 |
Change is in Fresno St's win chance, in points. Scores read N Arizona, then Fresno St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
N Arizona 0-2LL
- Nov 10L 74-76vs UC Irvine
- Nov 5L 52-79at Arizona St
- Last 2
- 0–2, scoring 63.0 and allowing 77.5
Fresno St 2-1WLW
- Nov 11W 74-56vs New Mexico
- Nov 7L 56-73at Colorado
- Nov 4W 94-32vs UC Merced
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 74.7 and allowing 53.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| N Arizona | Fresno St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 88.5 209th | 92.5 143rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.2 286th | 94.7 185th |
| Possessions a game | 74.1 43rd | 71.7 211th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.9% 216th | 46.7% 110th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.7% 256th | 46.5% 246th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.1% 140th | 24.1% 235th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.7% 327th | 35.9% 51st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 39th | 0.19 288th |
The widest gap: Fresno St's offense (143rd) against N Arizona's defense (286th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- N Arizona 30, Fresno St 36
- First-half margin
- Fresno St by 6.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.2
- Projected second half
- N Arizona 34, Fresno St 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- N Arizona, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 2 · 31.0 scored, 37.5 allowed
- Fresno St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 38.7 scored, 28.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
N Arizona
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan HawkinsG | 36 | 9.5 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Emma DasovichF | 25 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 2+ ast 52% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Aaliyah SmithG | 25 | 10.7 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 43% | |||||
| Madison WattsG | 23 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
| Layla DavisF | 21 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Tianna KnightonG | 20 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Olivia MooreF | 19 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Leah BullardF | 15 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 3+ reb 53% | |||||
Fresno St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mekhia ChaseG | 26 | 12.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| Lola DonezG | 26 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Jada HunterG | 25 | 8.6 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 56% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Zawadi OgotG | 25 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Ava MarrG | 25 | 9.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 61% · 2+ threes 58% | |||||
| Ashlyn ReanF | 25 | 11.0 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 8+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| Rubi GrayG | 20 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 57% | |||||
| Ivy BrownF | 20 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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