Who will win N Arizona vs USC?
The model gives USC a >99% chance to beat Northern Arizona, with a projected score of USC 100, N Arizona 51.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 USC | |||||
| WatkinsG · 24 min | 23.4 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 25+ 42% | |
| DavidsonG · 26 min | 18.8 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 20+ 43% | |
| HallG · 23 min | 17.2 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 15+ 62% | |
| SmithG · 24 min | 9.9 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 10+ 47% | |
 N Arizona | |||||
| SmithG · 23 min | 8.2 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 10+ 35% | |
| HawkinsG · 31 min | 6.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 5+ 64% | |
| DavisF · 20 min | 6.5 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 5+ 61% | |
| WattsG · 22 min | 6.4 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 5+ 60% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without JuJu Watkins: N Arizona <1%USC >99%
The white mark is the call with her: USC >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | USC without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC | ||||
| JuJu Watkins | 8.1 | >99% | 0 | 55–96 |
| Jazzy Davidson | 7.1 | >99% | 0 | 55–97 |
| Kennedy Smith | 5.2 | >99% | 0 | 54–98 |
| Laura Williams | 3.2 | >99% | 0 | 53–99 |
| N Arizona | ||||
| Madison Watts | 0.6 | >99% | 0 | 51–100 |
Change is in USC's win chance, in points. Scores read N Arizona, then USC. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
N Arizona 0-2LL
- Nov 10L 74-76vs UC Irvine
- Nov 5L 52-79at Arizona St
- Last 2
- 0–2, scoring 63.0 and allowing 77.5
USC 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 105-44vs CharlestonCovered −52.5 · Over 146.5
- Nov 8W 118-40vs Utah StateCovered −48.5 · Over 140.5
- Nov 2W 100-68vs UNLV
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 107.7 and allowing 50.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| N Arizona | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 88.5 209th | 120.0 3rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.2 286th | 78.7 16th |
| Possessions a game | 74.1 43rd | 73.3 76th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.9% 216th | 52.2% 4th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.7% 256th | 42.5% 27th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.1% 140th | 19.8% 3rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.7% 327th | 38.9% 4th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 39th | 0.19 293rd |
The widest gap: USC's offense (3rd) against N Arizona's defense (286th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- N Arizona 22, USC 50
- First-half margin
- USC by 28.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.7
- Projected second half
- N Arizona 29, USC 50
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- N Arizona, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 2 · 31.0 scored, 37.5 allowed
- USC, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 55.0 scored, 28.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
N Arizona
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan HawkinsG | 31 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Emma DasovichF | 23 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Aaliyah SmithG | 23 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 40% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Madison WattsG | 22 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Layla DavisF | 20 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
| Tianna KnightonG | 20 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Olivia MooreF | 19 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Leah BullardF | 16 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 3+ reb 48% | |||||
USC
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jazzy DavidsonG | 26 | 18.8 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 1.2 |
| 20+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 46% · 5+ ast 50% | |||||
| JuJu WatkinsG | 24 | 23.4 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.9 |
| 25+ pts 42% · 7+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Kennedy SmithG | 24 | 9.9 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 56% · 4+ ast 47% | |||||
| Saniyah HallG | 23 | 17.2 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| Sara OkekeF | 21 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 6+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
| Ryann BennettG | 19 | 8.7 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 4+ ast 52% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Sitaya FaganF | 17 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Pania DavisC | 16 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 6+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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