Who will win Xavier vs Dayton?
The model gives Dayton a 53% chance to beat Xavier, with a projected score of Dayton 70, Xavier 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dayton | |||||
| LeungG · 35 min | 15.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 15+ 55% | |
| IbrahimC · 29 min | 12.2 | 10.0 | 0.5 | 10+ 64% | |
| SwansonG · 31 min | 10.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 10+ 53% | |
| SmithG · 33 min | 10.2 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 10+ 49% | |
 Xavier | |||||
| JeromeG · 28 min | 13.9 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 15+ 42% | |
| RanG · 26 min | 11.4 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 10+ 58% | |
| KanervaG · 35 min | 11.0 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 10+ 55% | |
| Carter-HartleyF · 24 min | 8.0 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 10+ 34% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Fatima Ibrahim: Xavier 56%Dayton 44%
The white mark is the call with her: Dayton 53%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Dayton without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayton | ||||
| Fatima Ibrahim | 2.5 | 44% | −9 | 70–69 |
| Molly O'Riordan | 1.7 | 47% | −6 | 70–69 |
| Sophie Swanson | 1.5 | 48% | −5 | 70–69 |
| Olivia Leung | 1.3 | 49% | −4 | 70–69 |
| Xavier | ||||
| Diawna Carter-Hartley | 1.9 | 61% | +8 | 68–71 |
| Mya Moore | 1.6 | 59% | +6 | 68–71 |
| Maria Anais Rodriguez | 1.5 | 59% | +6 | 68–71 |
| Meri Kanerva | 1.3 | 58% | +5 | 68–71 |
Change is in Dayton's win chance, in points. Scores read Xavier, then Dayton. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Xavier 3-0WWW
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 78.7 and allowing 65.0
Dayton 1-1LW
- Nov 9W 77-71vs Penn State
- Nov 5L 87-91vs Illinois St
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 82.0 and allowing 81.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Xavier | Dayton | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 96.9 100th | 94.5 122nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 92.6 143rd | 94.1 173rd |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 234th | 72.7 115th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.7% 16th | 45.5% 172nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.7% 134th | 48.5% 329th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.6% 103rd | 23.0% 137th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.0% 83rd | 31.6% 247th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 128th | 0.23 88th |
The widest gap: Xavier's offense (100th) against Dayton's defense (173rd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Xavier 33, Dayton 33
- First-half margin
- Dayton by 0.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.8
- Projected second half
- Xavier 36, Dayton 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Xavier, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 38.7 scored, 32.0 allowed
- Dayton, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 38.0 scored, 35.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Xavier
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meri KanervaG | 35 | 11.0 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 57% · 5+ ast 50% | |||||
| Lucile JeromeG | 28 | 13.9 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Kejia RanG | 26 | 11.4 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Diawna Carter-HartleyF | 24 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Maria Anais RodriguezF | 21 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Mya MooreF | 16 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 58% | |||||
| Kodee Williams-SefoG | 15 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Hila KarshG | 14 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
Dayton
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia LeungG | 35 | 15.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Milee SmithG | 33 | 10.2 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 5+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Sophie SwansonG | 31 | 10.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Fatima IbrahimC | 29 | 12.2 | 10.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 10+ reb 51% | |||||
| M.G. TalleF | 21 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
| Molly O'RiordanF | 21 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Jayda JohnsonG | 20 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Brooke McLeodF | 19 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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