W Michigan at Dayton
Women's · Sunday, November 15, 2026, 1:00 PM ET at UD Arena. W Michigan our rank 274 · 0-2; Dayton our rank 142 · 1-1.
Who will win W Michigan vs Dayton?
The model gives Dayton a 90% chance to beat Western Michigan, with a projected score of Dayton 71, W Michigan 55.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayton | |||||
| LeungG · 33 min | 15.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 15+ 51% | |
| IbrahimC · 27 min | 12.0 | 9.8 | 0.5 | 10+ 62% | |
| SwansonG · 29 min | 10.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 10+ 51% | |
| SmithG · 31 min | 9.8 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 10+ 47% | |
| W Michigan | |||||
| StarksG · 32 min | 11.8 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 10+ 61% | |
| VyvermanG · 27 min | 7.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 10+ 32% | |
| RansomG · 26 min | 7.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 5+ 66% | |
| CarlsonG · 33 min | 6.0 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 5+ 57% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Fatima Ibrahim: W Michigan 14%Dayton 86%
The white mark is the call with her: Dayton 90%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Dayton without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayton | ||||
| Fatima Ibrahim | 2.5 | 86% | −4 | 56–70 |
| Molly O'Riordan | 1.7 | 88% | −2 | 56–70 |
| Sophie Swanson | 1.5 | 88% | −2 | 56–70 |
| Olivia Leung | 1.3 | 88% | −2 | 55–70 |
Change is in Dayton's win chance, in points. Scores read W Michigan, then Dayton. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
W Michigan 0-2LL
- Last 2
- 0–2, scoring 55.0 and allowing 64.5
Dayton 1-1LW
- Nov 9W 77-71vs Penn State
- Nov 5L 87-91vs Illinois St
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 82.0 and allowing 81.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| W Michigan | Dayton | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 78.9 323rd | 94.5 122nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.7 168th | 94.1 173rd |
| Possessions a game | 70.9 293rd | 72.7 115th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 43.7% 292nd | 45.5% 172nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.7% 255th | 48.5% 329th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.9% 279th | 23.0% 137th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 25.0% 363rd | 31.6% 247th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 134th | 0.23 88th |
The widest gap: Dayton's defense (173rd) against W Michigan's offense (323rd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- W Michigan 25, Dayton 35
- First-half margin
- Dayton by 9.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 59.7
- Projected second half
- W Michigan 30, Dayton 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 66.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- W Michigan, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 27.5 scored, 32.0 allowed
- Dayton, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 38.0 scored, 35.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
W Michigan
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alli CarlsonG | 33 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 59% | |||||
| Kailey StarksG | 32 | 11.8 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 2+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Casey VyvermanG | 27 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Zuri RansomG | 26 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Faith WisemanF | 22 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
| Emily Van TimmerenF | 19 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 53% | |||||
| Alli HarnessG | 18 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
Dayton
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia LeungG | 33 | 15.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 5+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Milee SmithG | 31 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 5+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Sophie SwansonG | 29 | 10.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 40% | |||||
| Fatima IbrahimC | 27 | 12.0 | 9.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 10+ reb 50% | |||||
| M.G. TalleF | 21 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
| Molly O'RiordanF | 20 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Jayda JohnsonG | 20 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Brooke McLeodF | 19 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…