Coastal 68, W Michigan 54
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 11:00 AM ET at University Arena (MI). Coastal our rank 113 · 3-0; W Michigan our rank 274 · 0-2.
Who won Coastal vs W Michigan?
Final: Coastal Carolina 68, Western Michigan 54. Before tip-off the model gave Coastal Carolina a 65% chance to win, with a projected margin of 5.2 points for Coastal Carolina. Olivia Klanac scored 19 for Coastal; Kailey Starks had 17 for W Michigan.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Tessa Grady: Coastal 59%W Michigan 41%
The white mark is the call with her: Coastal 65%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Coastal without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coastal | ||||
| Tessa Grady | 2.1 | 59% | −6 | 80–77 |
| Olivia Klanac | 2.0 | 59% | −6 | 80–77 |
| Tateyoina Harris | 2.0 | 59% | −6 | 80–77 |
| Kamryn Kitchen | 1.1 | 62% | −3 | 80–76 |
Change is in Coastal's win chance, in points. Scores read Coastal, then W Michigan. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Coastal
No games yet this season: this is its first.
W Michigan
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Coastal | W Michigan | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 97.4 96th | 78.9 323rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.2 155th | 93.7 168th |
| Possessions a game | 73.8 56th | 70.9 293rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.3% 81st | 43.7% 292nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.0% 152nd | 46.7% 255th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.0% 134th | 24.9% 279th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 36.8% 34th | 25.0% 363rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 119th | 0.22 134th |
The widest gap: Coastal's defense (155th) against W Michigan's offense (323rd), of 363 teams.
First half
Coastal led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 9.0 points and the total by 16.2.
- At halftime
- Coastal 35, W Michigan 23
- Projected halftime score
- Coastal 39, W Michigan 36
- First-half margin
- Coastal by 3.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Coastal
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baylee LowderG | 34 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 |
| Anja DjukicG | 33 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Olivia KlanacG | 30 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Tessa GradyF | 26 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Grace LeskoF | 25 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| Kamryn KitchenG | 22 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Tateyoina HarrisF | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| D'Yanis JimenezG | 12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
W Michigan
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kailey StarksG | 36 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Alli CarlsonG | 33 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
| Casey VyvermanG | 31 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Faith WisemanF | 28 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
| Zuri RansomG | 21 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Alli HarnessG | 20 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Emily Van TimmerenF | 13 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Isabella MiljkovicF | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Vanessa RodriguezG | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |