Who will win Coastal vs ETSU?
The model gives East Tennessee State a 51% chance to beat Coastal Carolina, with a projected score of ETSU 66, Coastal 66.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ETSU | |||||
| DesrochesG · 25 min | 12.7 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 15+ 35% | |
| McAmisG · 29 min | 11.3 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 10+ 58% | |
| NelsonG · 30 min | 10.6 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 10+ 53% | |
| LopezG · 34 min | 10.4 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 10+ 51% | |
 Coastal | |||||
| KlanacG · 31 min | 15.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 15+ 50% | |
| GradyF · 28 min | 13.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 15+ 40% | |
| LeskoF · 20 min | 8.9 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 10+ 40% | |
| HarrisF · 18 min | 6.6 | 5.5 | 0.8 | 5+ 62% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jaidyn Harper: Coastal 54%ETSU 46%
The white mark is the call with her: ETSU 51%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | ETSU without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETSU | ||||
| Jaidyn Harper | 1.5 | 46% | −5 | 67–66 |
| Anala Nelson | 1.3 | 47% | −4 | 67–66 |
| Daniela Lopez | 1.1 | 48% | −3 | 66–66 |
| Lucia France | 1.1 | 48% | −3 | 66–66 |
| Coastal | ||||
| Tessa Grady | 2.1 | 59% | +8 | 65–67 |
| Olivia Klanac | 2.0 | 59% | +8 | 65–67 |
| Tateyoina Harris | 2.0 | 59% | +8 | 65–67 |
| Kamryn Kitchen | 1.1 | 56% | +5 | 65–67 |
Change is in ETSU's win chance, in points. Scores read Coastal, then ETSU. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Coastal 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 89-78vs Jacksonville
- Nov 5W 103-54vs Johnson
- Nov 2W 68-54at W Michigan
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 86.7 and allowing 62.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Coastal | ETSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 97.4 96th | 90.0 178th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.2 155th | 90.3 114th |
| Possessions a game | 73.8 56th | 69.6 350th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.3% 81st | 45.5% 169th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.0% 152nd | 45.4% 169th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.0% 134th | 23.6% 196th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 36.8% 34th | 35.0% 80th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 119th | 0.19 285th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Coastal 31, ETSU 31
- First-half margin
- ETSU by 0.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.7
- Projected second half
- Coastal 35, ETSU 35
- Second-half points, both teams
- 69.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Coastal, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 46.0 scored, 27.0 allowed
- ETSU, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 31.0 scored, 30.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Coastal
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia KlanacG | 31 | 15.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Tessa GradyF | 28 | 13.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Anja DjukicG | 28 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Baylee LowderG | 24 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Kamryn KitchenG | 23 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Grace LeskoF | 20 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Caroline MullinsG | 20 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Tateyoina HarrisF | 18 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
ETSU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniela LopezG | 34 | 10.4 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Anala NelsonG | 30 | 10.6 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 49% · 4+ ast 44% | |||||
| Emmah McAmisG | 29 | 11.3 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Sydney-James DesrochesG | 25 | 12.7 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 38% | |||||
| Lucia FranceC | 22 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 7+ reb 44% | |||||
| Lucy HoodG | 21 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 35% · 2+ threes 37% | |||||
| Carmen RichardsonG | 20 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| SaBreya MonsantoG | 16 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 4+ reb 49% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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