Who will win Coastal vs Indiana?
The model gives Indiana a 94% chance to beat Coastal Carolina, with a projected score of Indiana 82, Coastal 63.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Indiana | |||||
| Socka-NguemenF · 23 min | 12.8 | 7.7 | 1.4 | 15+ 36% | |
| MakaluskyF · 24 min | 11.6 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 10+ 59% | |
| BeaumontG · 21 min | 9.5 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 10+ 45% | |
| WilliamsF · 16 min | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 10+ 42% | |
 Coastal | |||||
| KlanacG · 29 min | 13.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 15+ 38% | |
| GradyF · 26 min | 12.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 10+ 62% | |
| LeskoF · 20 min | 8.4 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 10+ 36% | |
| HarrisF · 18 min | 6.2 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 5+ 58% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jess Petrie: Coastal 9%Indiana 91%
The white mark is the call with her: Indiana 94%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Indiana without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | ||||
| Jess Petrie | 3.3 | 91% | −3 | 64–81 |
| Zania Socka-Nguemen | 3.2 | 91% | −3 | 64–81 |
| Malia Samuels | 3.0 | 91% | −3 | 64–81 |
| Kenzie Hare | 3.0 | 91% | −3 | 64–81 |
| Coastal | ||||
| Tessa Grady | 2.1 | 96% | +2 | 62–84 |
| Olivia Klanac | 2.0 | 96% | +2 | 62–84 |
| Tateyoina Harris | 2.0 | 96% | +2 | 62–84 |
| Kamryn Kitchen | 1.1 | 95% | +1 | 62–83 |
Change is in Indiana's win chance, in points. Scores read Coastal, then Indiana. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Coastal 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 89-78vs Jacksonville
- Nov 5W 103-54vs Johnson
- Nov 2W 68-54at W Michigan
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 86.7 and allowing 62.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Coastal | Indiana | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 97.4 96th | 106.7 33rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.2 155th | 84.2 55th |
| Possessions a game | 73.8 56th | 72.3 148th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.3% 81st | 48.4% 37th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.0% 152nd | 44.0% 85th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.0% 134th | 22.0% 61st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 36.8% 34th | 34.3% 109th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 119th | 0.24 43rd |
The widest gap: Indiana's offense (33rd) against Coastal's defense (155th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Coastal 29, Indiana 40
- First-half margin
- Indiana by 11.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.8
- Projected second half
- Coastal 34, Indiana 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Coastal, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 46.0 scored, 27.0 allowed
- Indiana, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.7 scored, 23.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Coastal
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia KlanacG | 29 | 13.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Tessa GradyF | 26 | 12.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Anja DjukicG | 26 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Baylee LowderG | 23 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 24% | |||||
| Kamryn KitchenG | 22 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Grace LeskoF | 20 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Caroline MullinsG | 19 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Tateyoina HarrisF | 18 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
Indiana
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenzie HareG | 28 | 8.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Malia SamuelsG | 24 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ ast 52% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Maya MakaluskyF | 24 | 11.6 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 2.3 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 59% | |||||
| Zania Socka-NguemenF | 23 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 1.4 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 8+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Lenee BeaumontG | 21 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Addy NyemchekF | 20 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Jess PetrieF | 18 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Alisa WilliamsF | 16 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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