Who will win Samford vs Indiana?
The model gives Indiana a 99% chance to beat Samford, with a projected score of Indiana 81, Samford 50.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Indiana | |||||
| Socka-NguemenF · 23 min | 12.7 | 7.6 | 1.4 | 15+ 35% | |
| MakaluskyF · 23 min | 11.4 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 10+ 58% | |
| BeaumontG · 21 min | 9.6 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 10+ 45% | |
| WilliamsF · 16 min | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 10+ 44% | |
 Samford | |||||
| YarbroughG · 22 min | 10.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 10+ 54% | |
| RiveraG · 28 min | 9.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 10+ 42% | |
| BjornstadC · 23 min | 7.0 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 5+ 65% | |
| RobersonG · 26 min | 6.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 5+ 62% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jess Petrie: Samford 1%Indiana 99%
The white mark is the call with her: Indiana 99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Indiana without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | ||||
| Jess Petrie | 3.3 | 99% | 0 | 52–80 |
| Zania Socka-Nguemen | 3.2 | 99% | 0 | 52–80 |
| Malia Samuels | 3.0 | 99% | 0 | 52–80 |
| Kenzie Hare | 3.0 | 99% | 0 | 52–80 |
Change is in Indiana's win chance, in points. Scores read Samford, then Indiana. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Samford 2-1WLW
- Nov 9W 50-40vs UNC Asheville
- Nov 5L 58-84at Georgia Tech
- Nov 2W 102-42vs Montevallo
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 70.0 and allowing 55.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Samford | Indiana | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 84.8 265th | 106.7 33rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 95.5 208th | 84.2 55th |
| Possessions a game | 70.6 312th | 72.3 148th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 41.7% 344th | 48.4% 37th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.3% 164th | 44.0% 85th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.9% 217th | 22.0% 61st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.3% 264th | 34.3% 109th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 69th | 0.24 43rd |
The widest gap: Indiana's defense (55th) against Samford's offense (265th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Samford 22, Indiana 40
- First-half margin
- Indiana by 17.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.4
- Projected second half
- Samford 28, Indiana 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 69.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Samford, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 34.7 scored, 27.3 allowed
- Indiana, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.7 scored, 23.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Samford
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Briana RiveraG | 28 | 9.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 2.7 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 47% · 3+ threes 47% | |||||
| Makayla RobersonG | 26 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Kayte-Madison BjornstadC | 23 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| Kaylee YarbroughG | 22 | 10.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Francie MorrisG | 22 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Natalie BarnesG | 21 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Avary BrewerG | 20 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Carla BagudaF | 18 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 4+ reb 56% | |||||
Indiana
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenzie HareG | 27 | 8.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Malia SamuelsG | 24 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 4+ ast 54% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Maya MakaluskyF | 23 | 11.4 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 58% | |||||
| Zania Socka-NguemenF | 23 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 1.4 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 8+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Lenee BeaumontG | 21 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Addy NyemchekF | 20 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Jess PetrieF | 18 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Alisa WilliamsF | 16 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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