Who will win Milwaukee vs Indiana?
The model gives Indiana a >99% chance to beat Milwaukee, with a projected score of Indiana 84, Milwaukee 51.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Indiana | |||||
| Socka-NguemenF · 23 min | 12.9 | 7.8 | 1.4 | 15+ 36% | |
| MakaluskyF · 23 min | 11.6 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 10+ 59% | |
| BeaumontG · 21 min | 9.8 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 10+ 46% | |
| WilliamsF · 17 min | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 10+ 45% | |
 Milwaukee | |||||
| PughF · 21 min | 8.8 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 10+ 39% | |
| MadiganG · 23 min | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 10+ 32% | |
| FitzgibbonG · 23 min | 7.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 10+ 31% | |
| GomesG · 13 min | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 5+ 50% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jess Petrie: Milwaukee 1%Indiana 99%
The white mark is the call with her: Indiana >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Indiana without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | ||||
| Jess Petrie | 3.3 | 99% | −1 | 53–82 |
| Zania Socka-Nguemen | 3.2 | 99% | −1 | 53–82 |
| Malia Samuels | 3.0 | 99% | −1 | 53–82 |
| Kenzie Hare | 3.0 | 99% | −1 | 53–82 |
Change is in Indiana's win chance, in points. Scores read Milwaukee, then Indiana. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Milwaukee 1-3LLLW
- Nov 12W 77-49vs North Dakota
- Nov 8L 57-63at SIUE
- Nov 5L 62-81at Saint Louis
- Nov 3L 60-64at Northwestern
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 64.0 and allowing 64.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Milwaukee | Indiana | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 86.5 241st | 106.7 33rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.2 287th | 84.2 55th |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 321st | 72.3 148th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.9% 52nd | 48.4% 37th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.4% 168th | 44.0% 85th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.7% 45th | 22.0% 61st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.2% 309th | 34.3% 109th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.16 358th | 0.24 43rd |
The widest gap: Indiana's offense (33rd) against Milwaukee's defense (287th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Milwaukee 23, Indiana 41
- First-half margin
- Indiana by 18.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.0
- Projected second half
- Milwaukee 29, Indiana 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 71.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Milwaukee, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 35.0 scored, 29.8 allowed
- Indiana, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.7 scored, 23.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Milwaukee
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton RechliczG | 28 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Jaeda MurphyG | 24 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Tierney MadiganG | 23 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Madison FitzgibbonG | 23 | 7.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Izzy PughF | 21 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 56% | |||||
| Kendall BarnesG | 14 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
| Cece McNairC | 14 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 17% · 3+ reb 50% | |||||
| Rita GomesG | 13 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
Indiana
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenzie HareG | 26 | 8.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Malia SamuelsG | 24 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ ast 56% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Maya MakaluskyF | 23 | 11.6 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 2.3 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 58% | |||||
| Zania Socka-NguemenF | 23 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 1.4 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 8+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Lenee BeaumontG | 21 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Addy NyemchekF | 20 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Jess PetrieF | 18 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Alisa WilliamsF | 17 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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