Who will win Samford vs Purdue?
The model gives Purdue a 87% chance to beat Samford, with a projected score of Purdue 72, Samford 58.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Purdue | |||||
| WickstromG · 32 min | 20.0 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 20+ 49% | |
| HunterG · 31 min | 13.2 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 15+ 38% | |
| BulajicG · 29 min | 11.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 10+ 59% | |
| GordonC · 22 min | 9.7 | 5.8 | 0.7 | 10+ 46% | |
 Samford | |||||
| YarbroughG · 23 min | 12.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 10+ 64% | |
| RiveraG · 30 min | 11.0 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 10+ 55% | |
| BjornstadC · 24 min | 8.0 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 10+ 33% | |
| RobersonG · 28 min | 7.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 10+ 32% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Hannah Wickstrom: Samford 20%Purdue 80%
The white mark is the call with her: Purdue 87%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Purdue without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purdue | ||||
| Hannah Wickstrom | 3.6 | 80% | −7 | 60–70 |
| Avery Gordon | 2.0 | 83% | −4 | 59–71 |
| Averi Aaron | 1.2 | 85% | −2 | 59–72 |
| Jelena Bulajic | 0.9 | 85% | −2 | 59–72 |
Change is in Purdue's win chance, in points. Scores read Samford, then Purdue. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Samford 2-1WLW
- Nov 9W 50-40vs UNC Asheville
- Nov 5L 58-84at Georgia Tech
- Nov 2W 102-42vs Montevallo
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 70.0 and allowing 55.3
Purdue 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 73-50vs SE Missouri
- Nov 5W 83-73vs E Michigan
- Nov 2W 81-73vs IU Indy
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 79.0 and allowing 65.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Samford | Purdue | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 84.8 265th | 94.6 120th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 95.5 208th | 93.2 153rd |
| Possessions a game | 70.6 312th | 72.9 103rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 41.7% 344th | 46.3% 127th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.3% 164th | 45.3% 166th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.9% 217th | 25.8% 317th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.3% 264th | 33.9% 124th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 69th | 0.28 3rd |
The widest gap: Purdue's defense (153rd) against Samford's offense (265th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Samford 27, Purdue 35
- First-half margin
- Purdue by 8.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.8
- Projected second half
- Samford 31, Purdue 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 68.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Samford, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 34.7 scored, 27.3 allowed
- Purdue, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 33.0 scored, 32.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Samford
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Briana RiveraG | 30 | 11.0 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 3.3 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 55% · 3+ threes 56% | |||||
| Makayla RobersonG | 28 | 7.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Kayte-Madison BjornstadC | 24 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 6+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Kaylee YarbroughG | 23 | 12.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Francie MorrisG | 22 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 3+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Natalie BarnesG | 21 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Avary BrewerG | 20 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Carla BagudaF | 18 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
Purdue
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannah WickstromG | 32 | 20.0 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 20+ pts 49% · 7+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 56% | |||||
| Kyndall HunterG | 31 | 13.2 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 59% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Jelena BulajicG | 29 | 11.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Taylor HendersonG | 25 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| Averi AaronF | 24 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 6+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Avery GordonC | 22 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 6+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Maya ZilbershlagNA | 14 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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