ETSU at Gardner-Webb
Women's · Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at Paul Porter Arena. ETSU our rank 149 · 3-1; Gardner-Webb our rank 331 · 1-1.
Who will win ETSU vs Gardner-Webb?
The model gives East Tennessee State a 84% chance to beat Gardner-Webb, with a projected score of ETSU 66, Gardner-Webb 53.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETSU | |||||
| DesrochesG · 24 min | 12.5 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 10+ 65% | |
| McAmisG · 28 min | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 10+ 56% | |
| NelsonG · 29 min | 10.3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 10+ 51% | |
| LopezG · 32 min | 10.0 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 10+ 48% | |
| Gardner-Webb | |||||
| TullG · 28 min | 8.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 10+ 38% | |
| OfunniyinF · 24 min | 7.8 | 5.4 | 0.6 | 10+ 32% | |
| ThompsonG · 21 min | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 5+ 56% | |
| HarrisG · 18 min | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 5+ 50% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jaidyn Harper: ETSU 81%Gardner-Webb 19%
The white mark is the call with her: ETSU 84%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | ETSU without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETSU | ||||
| Jaidyn Harper | 1.5 | 81% | −3 | 66–54 |
| Anala Nelson | 1.3 | 82% | −2 | 66–54 |
| Daniela Lopez | 1.1 | 82% | −2 | 66–54 |
| Lucia France | 1.1 | 82% | −2 | 66–54 |
Change is in ETSU's win chance, in points. Scores read ETSU, then Gardner-Webb. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
ETSU 3-1WLWW
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 67.5 and allowing 60.5
Gardner-Webb 1-1WL
- Nov 11L 54-59vs UNC Greensboro
- Nov 5W 84-72at Catawba
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 69.0 and allowing 65.5
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| ETSU | Gardner-Webb | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 90.0 178th | 79.2 321st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 90.3 114th | 100.9 311th |
| Possessions a game | 69.6 350th | 70.7 307th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.5% 169th | 43.3% 301st |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.4% 169th | 46.5% 244th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.6% 196th | 22.8% 120th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.0% 80th | 30.9% 284th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 285th | 0.19 310th |
The widest gap: ETSU's defense (114th) against Gardner-Webb's offense (321st), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- ETSU 32, Gardner-Webb 25
- First-half margin
- ETSU by 7.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 56.6
- Projected second half
- ETSU 34, Gardner-Webb 29
- Second-half points, both teams
- 62.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- ETSU, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 31.0 scored, 30.5 allowed
- Gardner-Webb, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 28.5 scored, 28.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
ETSU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniela LopezG | 32 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Anala NelsonG | 29 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 48% · 4+ ast 45% | |||||
| Emmah McAmisG | 28 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Sydney-James DesrochesG | 24 | 12.5 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 38% | |||||
| Lucia FranceC | 22 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 7+ reb 45% | |||||
| Lucy HoodG | 20 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 36% · 2+ threes 37% | |||||
| Carmen RichardsonG | 20 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| SaBreya MonsantoG | 16 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 4+ reb 52% | |||||
Gardner-Webb
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laila TullG | 28 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Makayla LegetteG | 27 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Amira OfunniyinF | 24 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
| Sara MenendezG | 23 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Kayla MartinG | 23 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Taryn ThompsonG | 21 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Shiriah HarrisG | 18 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Jordan BrooksG | 17 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 2+ ast 55% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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