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Probable Stats / Women's / Saturday, November 14

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Queens at Gardner-Webb

Women's · Saturday, November 14, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Paul Porter Arena. Queens our rank 320 · 1-2; Gardner-Webb our rank 331 · 1-1.

Who will win Queens vs Gardner-Webb?

Logged before tip-off; never changed after it.

The model gives Gardner-Webb a 56% chance to beat Queens University, with a projected score of Gardner-Webb 62, Queens 60.

To winGardner-Webb 56%Queens 44%
Projected score60–62Queens, then Gardner-Webb
Margin1.9Gardner-Webb · no line posted
Total121.5no line posted
First half28–29Gardner-Webb ahead 53%
Queens by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20Gardner-Webb by 30Model: Gardner-Webb by 1.9Queens by 30by 10by 10Gardner-Webb by 30Model: Gardner-Webb by 1.9

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Gardner-Webb
TullG · 29 min10.03.41.610+ 48%
OfunniyinF · 25 min9.06.20.810+ 41%
ThompsonG · 21 min6.82.21.05+ 63%
HarrisG · 18 min6.02.00.95+ 56%
Queens
MinshallG · 25 min8.53.51.510+ 37%
NobleG · 26 min7.74.11.010+ 32%
KlabundeG · 22 min7.52.41.85+ 69%
DavisF · 22 min7.14.30.85+ 66%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Queens 1-2LLW

    1. Nov 9W 86-40vs Carolina University
    2. Nov 4L 42-100at Vanderbilt
    3. Nov 2L 56-92at Alabama
    Last 3
    1–2, scoring 61.3 and allowing 77.3

    Gardner-Webb 1-1WL

    1. Nov 11L 54-59vs UNC Greensboro
    2. Nov 5W 84-72at Catawba
    Last 2
    1–1, scoring 69.0 and allowing 65.5

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    QueensGardner-Webb
    Points scored per 100 possessions76.9 344th79.2 321st
    Points allowed per 10096.4 226th100.9 311th
    Possessions a game73.7 57th70.7 307th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)44.4% 251st43.3% 301st
    Opponents' shooting46.9% 264th46.5% 244th
    Turnovers, share of possessions25.6% 307th22.8% 120th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses30.5% 298th30.9% 284th
    Free throws per shot0.20 252nd0.19 310th

    The widest gap: Queens's defense (226th) against Gardner-Webb's offense (321st), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Queens 28, Gardner-Webb 29
    First-half margin
    Gardner-Webb by 1.1
    First-half points, both teams
    57.6
    Projected second half
    Queens 32, Gardner-Webb 32
    Second-half points, both teams
    63.9
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Queens, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 3 · 23.7 scored, 47.0 allowed
    Gardner-Webb, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 2 · 28.5 scored, 28.5 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Queens

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Ashantay NobleG267.74.11.00.7
    10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 46%
    Makayla MinshallG258.53.51.50.9
    10+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 55%
    Ryan DavisF227.14.30.80.1
    5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 20%
    Ahmani KlabundeG227.52.41.81.1
    5+ pts 69% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 51%
    Brenae Jones-GrantF204.85.90.50.6
    5+ pts 44% · 6+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 41%
    Mia MooreG183.92.71.10.3
    5+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 31%
    Nykira ArringtonF144.23.70.50.1
    5+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 47%
    Paulina ReichenaurG123.81.40.80.3
    5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 38% · 1+ threes 26%

    Gardner-Webb

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Laila TullG2910.03.41.61.3
    10+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 47%
    Makayla LegetteG285.12.93.50.7
    5+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 46%
    Amira OfunniyinF259.06.20.80.0
    10+ pts 41% · 6+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 19%
    Sara MenendezG244.33.20.81.2
    5+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 63%
    Kayla MartinG234.85.10.90.3
    5+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 24%
    Taryn ThompsonG216.82.21.01.1
    5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 62%
    Shiriah HarrisG186.02.00.90.5
    5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 35%
    Jordan BrooksG176.01.22.30.6
    5+ pts 56% · 3+ ast 40% · 1+ threes 41%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Sat, Nov 14

    All games
    1. 2 PMprojected 62-70Rhode Island at St John's, women's: game page
    2. 2 PMprojected 69-67Wisconsin at Green Bay, women's: game page
    3. 3 PMprojected 73-62California at Santa Barbara, women's: game page
    4. 4 PMprojected 74-65North Carolina at Penn, women's: game page
    5. 4:30 PMprojected 72-62Nebraska vs Kansas, women's: game page
    6. 6 PMprojected 69-71Northwestern vs App State, women's: game page
    Queens next: vs Charleston, Wed, Nov 18 · 24%Gardner-Webb next: vs ETSU, Wed, Nov 18 · 16%Queens: schedule and oddsGardner-Webb: schedule and odds