Who will win Dayton vs Belmont?
The model gives Belmont a 63% chance to beat Dayton, with a projected score of Belmont 70, Dayton 66.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Belmont | |||||
| McCarnG · 31 min | 15.1 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 15+ 50% | |
| JordanG · 30 min | 13.7 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 15+ 41% | |
| McGinnisG · 19 min | 8.2 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 10+ 35% | |
| EubankG · 28 min | 6.7 | 6.4 | 1.0 | 5+ 63% | |
 Dayton | |||||
| LeungG · 35 min | 15.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 15+ 49% | |
| IbrahimC · 28 min | 11.6 | 9.5 | 0.5 | 10+ 59% | |
| SwansonG · 30 min | 10.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 10+ 49% | |
| SmithG · 33 min | 9.6 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 10+ 45% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kenley McCarn: Dayton 43%Belmont 57%
The white mark is the call with her: Belmont 63%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Belmont without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belmont | ||||
| Kenley McCarn | 1.7 | 57% | −6 | 67–69 |
| Quinn Eubank | 1.7 | 58% | −5 | 67–69 |
| KK Brodie | 1.4 | 58% | −5 | 67–69 |
| Chelby Jordan | 0.8 | 60% | −3 | 66–69 |
| Dayton | ||||
| Fatima Ibrahim | 2.5 | 70% | +7 | 65–71 |
| Molly O'Riordan | 1.7 | 68% | +5 | 65–71 |
| Sophie Swanson | 1.5 | 67% | +4 | 65–71 |
| Olivia Leung | 1.3 | 67% | +4 | 65–71 |
Change is in Belmont's win chance, in points. Scores read Dayton, then Belmont. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Dayton 1-1LW
- Nov 9W 77-71vs Penn State
- Nov 5L 87-91vs Illinois St
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 82.0 and allowing 81.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Dayton | Belmont | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 94.5 122nd | 92.2 150th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 94.1 173rd | 91.9 133rd |
| Possessions a game | 72.7 115th | 71.8 200th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.5% 172nd | 44.5% 245th |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.5% 329th | 45.7% 193rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.0% 137th | 24.2% 241st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.6% 247th | 31.9% 233rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 88th | 0.19 309th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Dayton 31, Belmont 33
- First-half margin
- Belmont by 2.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.3
- Projected second half
- Dayton 35, Belmont 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 71.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Dayton, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 38.0 scored, 35.5 allowed
- Belmont, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 22.3 scored, 33.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Dayton
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia LeungG | 35 | 15.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Milee SmithG | 33 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Sophie SwansonG | 30 | 10.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 39% | |||||
| Fatima IbrahimC | 28 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 10+ reb 46% | |||||
| M.G. TalleF | 21 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 16% | |||||
| Molly O'RiordanF | 21 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Jayda JohnsonG | 20 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Brooke McLeodF | 19 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
Belmont
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenley McCarnG | 31 | 15.1 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Chelby JordanG | 30 | 13.7 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 56% · 4+ ast 43% | |||||
| Quinn EubankG | 28 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 7+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| KK BrodieC | 26 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Katie CriswellG | 25 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Kate McGinnisG | 19 | 8.2 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Tatum WoodsonG | 17 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Samiya JonesF | 12 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 3+ reb 41% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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