Harvard at Colorado St
Women's · Friday, November 20, 2026, 8:30 PM ET at Moby Arena. Harvard our rank 44 · 3-1; Colorado St our rank 86 · 2-1.
Who will win Harvard vs Colorado St?
The model gives Harvard a 64% chance to beat Colorado State, with a projected score of Harvard 68, Colorado St 64.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvard | |||||
| WhiteG · 29 min | 15.9 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 15+ 54% | |
| WrightF · 28 min | 15.1 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 15+ 49% | |
| JonesG · 32 min | 9.9 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 10+ 48% | |
| HollensteinerG · 23 min | 6.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 5+ 62% | |
| Colorado St | |||||
| RunnerG · 34 min | 16.9 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 15+ 60% | |
| FroebeG · 31 min | 12.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 15+ 35% | |
| MurphyG · 31 min | 9.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 10+ 47% | |
| KramerG · 30 min | 8.0 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 10+ 33% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Karlee White: Harvard 49%Colorado St 51%
The white mark is the call with her: Harvard 64%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Harvard without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvard | ||||
| Karlee White | 4.6 | 49% | −15 | 66–66 |
| Olivia Jones | 3.6 | 52% | −12 | 66–66 |
| Abigail Wright | 3.5 | 53% | −11 | 66–66 |
| Mary Hollensteiner | 2.2 | 57% | −7 | 67–65 |
| Colorado St | ||||
| Kloe Froebe | 3.6 | 74% | +10 | 70–62 |
| Camryn Runner | 2.8 | 72% | +8 | 70–62 |
| McKenna Murphy | 2.5 | 71% | +7 | 69–63 |
| Caitlin Kramer | 1.4 | 68% | +4 | 69–63 |
Change is in Harvard's win chance, in points. Scores read Harvard, then Colorado St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Harvard 3-1LWWW
- Nov 11W 78-65vs UMass
- Nov 9W 63-42at Holy Cross
- Nov 5W 81-51vs Boston College
- Nov 2L 62-82at Minnesota
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 71.0 and allowing 60.0
Colorado St 2-1WLW
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 70.7 and allowing 56.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Harvard | Colorado St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.6 45th | 100.7 69th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 83.7 52nd | 91.8 131st |
| Possessions a game | 70.5 318th | 69.5 352nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.1% 135th | 49.9% 12th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.2% 51st | 43.9% 82nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.0% 58th | 21.0% 19th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 37.5% 25th | 29.3% 337th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 123rd | 0.21 168th |
The widest gap: Harvard's offense (45th) against Colorado St's defense (131st), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Harvard 33, Colorado St 30
- First-half margin
- Harvard by 2.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.6
- Projected second half
- Harvard 36, Colorado St 34
- Second-half points, both teams
- 69.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Harvard, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 34.8 scored, 26.0 allowed
- Colorado St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 35.7 scored, 24.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Harvard
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lydia ChatiraG | 33 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Olivia JonesG | 32 | 9.9 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 8+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Karlee WhiteG | 29 | 15.9 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 3+ ast 53% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Abigail WrightF | 28 | 15.1 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 6+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Mary HollensteinerG | 23 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Sam WillsF | 15 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
| Alayna RoccoG | 13 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 2+ reb 29% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Asani CeaserF | 11 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 18% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
Colorado St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camryn RunnerG | 34 | 16.9 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 54% · 4+ ast 53% | |||||
| McKenna MurphyG | 31 | 9.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 37% | |||||
| Kloe FroebeG | 31 | 12.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.5 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 6+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 43% | |||||
| Caitlin KramerG | 30 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Heidur KarlsdottirF | 20 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Sophie SeneF | 17 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Gianna SmithG | 11 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| 2+ reb 34% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…