Santa Clara at Arizona St
Women's · Friday, November 20, 2026, 8:30 PM ET at Mullett Arena. Santa Clara our rank 69 · 3-0; Arizona St our rank 37 · 3-0.
Who will win Santa Clara vs Arizona St?
The model gives Arizona State a 86% chance to beat Santa Clara, with a projected score of Arizona St 78, Santa Clara 65.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona St | |||||
| MorsonG · 27 min | 16.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 15+ 55% | |
| WhitehornG · 30 min | 13.9 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 15+ 42% | |
| BrackensF · 30 min | 12.0 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 10+ 62% | |
| CarreraF · 25 min | 11.1 | 5.6 | 0.6 | 10+ 56% | |
| Santa Clara | |||||
| GlanceyF · 27 min | 13.8 | 7.1 | 1.3 | 15+ 42% | |
| JonesG · 27 min | 13.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 15+ 39% | |
| SchmidtF · 28 min | 10.6 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 10+ 53% | |
| FoxG · 26 min | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 5+ 65% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Ruby Whitehorn: Santa Clara 24%Arizona St 76%
The white mark is the call with her: Arizona St 86%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Arizona St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona St | ||||
| Ruby Whitehorn | 4.6 | 76% | −10 | 67–76 |
| Rashunda Jones | 4.4 | 76% | −10 | 67–76 |
| McKinna Brackens | 3.9 | 78% | −8 | 67–76 |
| Madison Morson | 3.3 | 79% | −7 | 67–77 |
| Santa Clara | ||||
| Sophie Glancey | 3.5 | 91% | +5 | 63–80 |
| Maia Jones | 3.0 | 91% | +5 | 64–80 |
| Ava Schmidt | 2.9 | 91% | +5 | 64–80 |
| Kylee Fox | 1.9 | 89% | +3 | 64–79 |
Change is in Arizona St's win chance, in points. Scores read Santa Clara, then Arizona St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Santa Clara 3-0WWW
- Nov 9W 89-70at Long Beach St
- Nov 7W 64-62at Utah Valley
- Nov 2W 84-50at Wyoming
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 79.0 and allowing 60.7
Arizona St 3-0WWW
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 76.0 and allowing 50.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Santa Clara | Arizona St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.0 59th | 106.7 32nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 89.5 99th | 83.1 46th |
| Possessions a game | 74.3 29th | 71.0 285th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.3% 77th | 47.3% 79th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.3% 56th | 43.2% 54th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.9% 14th | 22.1% 70th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.8% 54th | 36.5% 42nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 172nd | 0.19 297th |
The widest gap: Arizona St's offense (32nd) against Santa Clara's defense (99th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Santa Clara 30, Arizona St 38
- First-half margin
- Arizona St by 7.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.0
- Projected second half
- Santa Clara 35, Arizona St 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 75.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Santa Clara, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 43.3 scored, 30.3 allowed
- Arizona St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 34.7 scored, 25.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Santa Clara
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ava SchmidtF | 28 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Aniya HookerG | 27 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ ast 54% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Sophie GlanceyF | 27 | 13.8 | 7.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 7+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Maia JonesG | 27 | 13.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 2+ ast 48% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Kylee FoxG | 26 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Delainey MillerG | 19 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Kate SchatG | 17 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Emma NajjumaC | 16 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 6+ reb 53% | |||||
Arizona St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McKinna BrackensF | 30 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 7+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Ruby WhitehornG | 30 | 13.9 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 6+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Rashunda JonesG | 30 | 10.7 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 5+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Madison MorsonG | 27 | 16.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Heloisa CarreraF | 25 | 11.1 | 5.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 46% | |||||
| Averie LowerG | 19 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Ayanna-Sarai DarringtonF | 15 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 58% | |||||
| Ella RyanG | 14 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 52% to play · 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
Missed the last game: Ella Ryan (17 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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