UMass at Boston College
Women's · Friday, November 20, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at Conte Forum. UMass our rank 104 · 1-2; Boston College our rank 162 · 1-2.
Who will win UMass vs Boston College?
The model gives Massachusetts a 55% chance to beat Boston College, with a projected score of UMass 68, Boston College 67.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMass | |||||
| McKayleG · 36 min | 13.9 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 15+ 42% | |
| FranksG · 32 min | 11.6 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 10+ 60% | |
| DotseyF · 25 min | 10.7 | 5.9 | 1.1 | 10+ 53% | |
| PerkinsG · 28 min | 8.6 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 10+ 38% | |
| Boston College | |||||
| GrierG · 32 min | 15.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 15+ 49% | |
| PaunksnyteG · 33 min | 11.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 10+ 57% | |
| SalgadoF · 27 min | 10.3 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 10+ 50% | |
| HollingsworthG · 24 min | 7.1 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 5+ 66% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Yahmani McKayle: UMass 47%Boston College 53%
The white mark is the call with her: UMass 55%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | UMass without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMass | ||||
| Yahmani McKayle | 2.4 | 47% | −8 | 67–68 |
| Ayanna Franks | 1.7 | 50% | −5 | 68–68 |
| Caroline Dotsey | 1.7 | 50% | −5 | 68–68 |
| Chinenye Odenigbo | 1.6 | 50% | −5 | 68–68 |
| Boston College | ||||
| Jocelyne Grier | 1.0 | 60% | +5 | 69–66 |
| Daniele Paunksnyte | 0.8 | 59% | +4 | 69–66 |
| Eunicia Salgado | 0.7 | 59% | +4 | 69–66 |
| Nuria Ausaverri | 0.6 | 58% | +3 | 69–67 |
Change is in UMass's win chance, in points. Scores read UMass, then Boston College. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
UMass 1-2LWL
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 65.0 and allowing 67.3
Boston College 1-2LLW
- Nov 11W 86-57vs UMass Lowell
- Nov 5L 51-81at Harvard
- Nov 2L 54-64vs Holy Cross
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 63.7 and allowing 67.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UMass | Boston College | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 95.0 116th | 92.3 148th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 89.9 106th | 94.4 180th |
| Possessions a game | 72.0 179th | 72.7 115th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.7% 229th | 43.0% 315th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.4% 236th | 46.2% 220th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.2% 160th | 24.1% 231st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 36.0% 47th | 34.4% 101st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 197th | 0.23 66th |
The widest gap: UMass's offense (116th) against Boston College's defense (180th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- UMass 33, Boston College 32
- First-half margin
- UMass by 1.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.2
- Projected second half
- UMass 36, Boston College 35
- Second-half points, both teams
- 71.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- UMass, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 27.7 scored, 35.7 allowed
- Boston College, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 30.7 scored, 31.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
UMass
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yahmani McKayleG | 36 | 13.9 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 5+ ast 42% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Ayanna FranksG | 32 | 11.6 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Aiyanna PerkinsG | 28 | 8.6 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Caroline DotseyF | 25 | 10.7 | 5.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 6+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Jess RossF | 23 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 6+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
| Chinenye OdenigboC | 19 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Taylor DerkackG | 16 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Alba CaballeroF | 12 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
Boston College
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniele PaunksnyteG | 33 | 11.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Athena TomlinsonG | 32 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 4+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Jocelyne GrierG | 32 | 15.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Eunicia SalgadoF | 27 | 10.3 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 6+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Megan HollingsworthG | 24 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Nuria AusaverriF | 17 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Nora ArozenaF | 17 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Grace OliverF | 13 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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