Who will win Baylor vs USC?
The model gives USC a 85% chance to beat Baylor, with a projected score of USC 82, Baylor 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 USC | |||||
| WatkinsG · 26 min | 21.0 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 20+ 55% | |
| DavidsonG · 28 min | 17.2 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 15+ 62% | |
| HallG · 24 min | 15.1 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 15+ 50% | |
| SmithG · 25 min | 8.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 10+ 40% | |
 Baylor | |||||
| ScottG · 27 min | 12.4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 10+ 65% | |
| ThompsonG · 26 min | 10.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 10+ 50% | |
| JonesG · 20 min | 9.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 10+ 45% | |
| KovalF · 22 min | 9.5 | 7.1 | 1.0 | 10+ 44% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without JuJu Watkins: Baylor 35%USC 65%
The white mark is the call with her: USC 85%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | USC without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC | ||||
| JuJu Watkins | 8.1 | 65% | −20 | 73–78 |
| Jazzy Davidson | 7.1 | 68% | −17 | 73–79 |
| Kennedy Smith | 5.2 | 73% | −12 | 72–79 |
| Laura Williams | 3.2 | 78% | −7 | 71–80 |
| Baylor | ||||
| Kate Koval | 4.6 | 92% | +7 | 67–84 |
| Taliah Scott | 3.8 | 91% | +6 | 67–84 |
| Skylar Jones | 3.6 | 91% | +6 | 67–84 |
| Trinity Turner | 3.4 | 91% | +6 | 68–84 |
Change is in USC's win chance, in points. Scores read Baylor, then USC. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Baylor 4-0WWWW
- Nov 12W 121-43vs Prairie View
- Nov 8W 112-40vs Texas A&M-CC
- Nov 5W 72-44vs C Arkansas
- Nov 2W 87-66vs FDU
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 98.0 and allowing 48.2
USC 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 105-44vs CharlestonCovered −52.5 · Over 146.5
- Nov 8W 118-40vs Utah StateCovered −48.5 · Over 140.5
- Nov 2W 100-68vs UNLV
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 107.7 and allowing 50.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Baylor | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 107.4 26th | 120.0 3rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 81.5 30th | 78.7 16th |
| Possessions a game | 73.7 57th | 73.3 76th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.1% 5th | 52.2% 4th |
| Opponents' shooting | 41.7% 19th | 42.5% 27th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.5% 93rd | 19.8% 3rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.5% 56th | 38.9% 4th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 59th | 0.19 293rd |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Baylor 32, USC 40
- First-half margin
- USC by 7.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.8
- Projected second half
- Baylor 37, USC 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Baylor, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 48.0 scored, 24.2 allowed
- USC, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 55.0 scored, 28.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Baylor
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trinity TurnerG | 27 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Taliah ScottG | 27 | 12.4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Tianna ThompsonG | 26 | 10.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Reese RossF | 25 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 7+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Kate KovalF | 22 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 7+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 28% | |||||
| Skylar JonesG | 20 | 9.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Ines GoryanovaG | 18 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Kayla NelmsF | 17 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
USC
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jazzy DavidsonG | 28 | 17.2 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 56% · 4+ ast 52% | |||||
| JuJu WatkinsG | 26 | 21.0 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 |
| 20+ pts 55% · 7+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Kennedy SmithG | 25 | 8.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Saniyah HallG | 24 | 15.1 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Sara OkekeF | 21 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
| Ryann BennettG | 20 | 7.5 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 3+ ast 54% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Sitaya FaganF | 17 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Pania DavisC | 16 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 51% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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