East Texas A&M at Baylor
Women's · Sunday, November 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET at Foster Pavilion. East Texas A&M our rank 247 · 2-2; Baylor our rank 24 · 4-0.
Who will win East Texas A&M vs Baylor?
The model gives Baylor a >99% chance to beat East Texas A&M, with a projected score of Baylor 89, East Texas A&M 53.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor | |||||
| ScottG · 25 min | 14.4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 15+ 45% | |
| ThompsonG · 25 min | 11.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 10+ 62% | |
| JonesG · 19 min | 11.6 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 10+ 60% | |
| KovalF · 22 min | 11.5 | 8.6 | 1.5 | 10+ 59% | |
| East Texas A&M | |||||
| CastilloG · 24 min | 8.7 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 10+ 39% | |
| HorvathG · 26 min | 6.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 5+ 64% | |
| McCoyG · 26 min | 6.8 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 5+ 63% | |
| SerranoG · 20 min | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 5+ 64% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kate Koval: East Texas A&M 1%Baylor 99%
The white mark is the call with her: Baylor >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Baylor without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor | ||||
| Kate Koval | 4.6 | 99% | −1 | 55–87 |
| Taliah Scott | 3.8 | >99% | 0 | 55–87 |
| Skylar Jones | 3.6 | >99% | 0 | 55–87 |
| Trinity Turner | 3.4 | >99% | 0 | 55–87 |
| East Texas A&M | ||||
| Torie Sevier | 0.6 | >99% | 0 | 53–89 |
Change is in Baylor's win chance, in points. Scores read East Texas A&M, then Baylor. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
East Texas A&M 2-2WLLW
- Nov 11W 80-77vs Louisiana
- Nov 8L 65-78at SMU
- Nov 4L 58-66at Cincinnati
- Nov 2W 81-40vs Oklahoma Christian
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 71.0 and allowing 65.2
Baylor 4-0WWWW
- Nov 12W 121-43vs Prairie View
- Nov 8W 112-40vs Texas A&M-CC
- Nov 5W 72-44vs C Arkansas
- Nov 2W 87-66vs FDU
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 98.0 and allowing 48.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| East Texas A&M | Baylor | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 88.8 198th | 107.4 26th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 101.0 314th | 81.5 30th |
| Possessions a game | 72.0 179th | 73.7 57th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.0% 93rd | 52.1% 5th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.1% 273rd | 41.7% 19th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.6% 106th | 22.5% 93rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.3% 204th | 35.5% 56th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 267th | 0.23 59th |
The widest gap: Baylor's offense (26th) against East Texas A&M's defense (314th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- East Texas A&M 23, Baylor 44
- First-half margin
- Baylor by 20.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.4
- Projected second half
- East Texas A&M 30, Baylor 45
- Second-half points, both teams
- 74.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- East Texas A&M, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 34.5 scored, 27.5 allowed
- Baylor, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 48.0 scored, 24.2 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
East Texas A&M
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cora HorvathG | 26 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| Terrayah McCoyG | 26 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Rezia CastilloG | 24 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 3+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Samantha SerranoG | 20 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Torie SevierF | 20 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 58% | |||||
| Jailynn BrillF | 19 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Jadyn FifeF | 19 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Blayke BrackensG | 17 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 18% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
Baylor
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taliah ScottG | 25 | 14.4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 3+ ast 52% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Trinity TurnerG | 25 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Tianna ThompsonG | 25 | 11.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Reese RossF | 24 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 8+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Kate KovalF | 22 | 11.5 | 8.6 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 9+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Skylar JonesG | 19 | 11.6 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Ines GoryanovaG | 18 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Kayla NelmsF | 18 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 6+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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