Who won FDU vs Baylor?
Final: Baylor 87, Fairleigh Dickinson 66. Before tip-off the model gave Baylor a 98% chance to win, with a projected margin of 28.8 points for Baylor. Taliah Scott scored 15 for Baylor; Reese Downey had 11 for FDU.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Kate Koval: FDU 4%Baylor 96%
The white mark is the call with her: Baylor 98%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Baylor without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Baylor | ||||
| Kate Koval | 4.6 | 96% | −2 | 65–90 |
| Taliah Scott | 3.8 | 96% | −2 | 65–90 |
| Skylar Jones | 3.6 | 97% | −1 | 65–90 |
| Trinity Turner | 3.4 | 97% | −1 | 65–90 |
 FDU | ||||
| Rebecca Osei-Owusu | 1.8 | 99% | +1 | 62–93 |
| Leah Crosby | 1.6 | 99% | +1 | 62–93 |
| Reese Downey | 0.6 | 98% | 0 | 63–92 |
Change is in Baylor's win chance, in points. Scores read FDU, then Baylor. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| FDU | Baylor | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 93.7 131st | 107.4 26th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 96.2 223rd | 81.5 30th |
| Possessions a game | 69.4 357th | 73.7 57th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.8% 107th | 52.1% 5th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.3% 232nd | 41.7% 19th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.0% 66th | 22.5% 93rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.8% 176th | 35.5% 56th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 318th | 0.23 59th |
The widest gap: Baylor's offense (26th) against FDU's defense (223rd), of 363 teams.
First half
Baylor led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 1.4 points and the total by 8.5.
- At halftime
- FDU 32, Baylor 50
- Projected halftime score
- FDU 28, Baylor 45
- First-half margin
- Baylor by 16.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
FDU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reese DowneyG | 32 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Leah CrosbyF | 26 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 0 |
| Rebecca Osei-OwusuF | 26 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Ane ValleG | 23 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Theresa BiladiG | 21 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Iriona GravleyF | 19 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ophir WeintraubG | 13 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Ally KaminskiG | 13 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Analyse IntenzoG | 11 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Baylor
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trinity TurnerG | 31 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Reese RossF | 30 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| Tianna ThompsonG | 28 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Ines GoryanovaG | 22 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Kate KovalF | 21 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 0 |
| Taliah ScottG | 21 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Kayla NelmsF | 20 | 14 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Skylar JonesG | 19 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Lorena AwouC | 8 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |