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Probable Stats / Women's / Friday, November 20

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Milwaukee at W Michigan

Women's · Friday, November 20, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at University Arena (MI). Milwaukee our rank 254 · 1-3; W Michigan our rank 274 · 0-2.

Who will win Milwaukee vs W Michigan?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Western Michigan a 57% chance to beat Milwaukee, with a projected score of W Michigan 61, Milwaukee 59.

To winW Michigan 57%Milwaukee 43%
Projected score59–61Milwaukee, then W Michigan
Margin2.1W Michigan · no line posted
Total119.7no line posted
First half28–29W Michigan ahead 53%
Milwaukee by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20W Michigan by 30Model: W Michigan by 2.1Milwaukee by 30by 10by 10W Michigan by 30Model: W Michigan by 2.1

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
W Michigan
StarksG · 35 min13.93.92.215+ 42%
VyvermanG · 28 min9.02.91.310+ 41%
RansomG · 27 min8.13.81.110+ 34%
CarlsonG · 35 min7.14.04.05+ 66%
Milwaukee
PughF · 22 min10.45.00.610+ 51%
MadiganG · 25 min9.65.02.410+ 45%
FitzgibbonG · 25 min9.42.02.410+ 44%
MurphyG · 26 min5.32.52.95+ 49%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Milwaukee 1-3LLLW

    1. Nov 12W 77-49vs North Dakota
    2. Nov 8L 57-63at SIUE
    3. Nov 5L 62-81at Saint Louis
    4. Nov 3L 60-64at Northwestern
    Last 4
    1–3, scoring 64.0 and allowing 64.2

    W Michigan 0-2LL

    1. Nov 10L 56-61vs Purdue FW
    2. Nov 2L 54-68vs Coastal
    Last 2
    0–2, scoring 55.0 and allowing 64.5

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    MilwaukeeW Michigan
    Points scored per 100 possessions86.5 241st78.9 323rd
    Points allowed per 10099.2 287th93.7 168th
    Possessions a game70.4 321st70.9 293rd
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)47.9% 52nd43.7% 292nd
    Opponents' shooting45.4% 168th46.7% 255th
    Turnovers, share of possessions21.7% 45th24.9% 279th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses30.2% 309th25.0% 363rd
    Free throws per shot0.16 358th0.22 134th

    The widest gap: W Michigan's defense (168th) against Milwaukee's offense (241st), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Milwaukee 28, W Michigan 29
    First-half margin
    W Michigan by 1.2
    First-half points, both teams
    56.8
    Projected second half
    Milwaukee 31, W Michigan 32
    Second-half points, both teams
    63.0
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Milwaukee, first halves so far
    Led 3 of 4 · 35.0 scored, 29.8 allowed
    W Michigan, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 2 · 27.5 scored, 32.0 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Milwaukee

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Payton RechliczG314.53.52.21.1
    5+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 60%
    Jaeda MurphyG265.32.52.90.4
    5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 52%
    Tierney MadiganG259.65.02.40.3
    10+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 42%
    Madison FitzgibbonG259.42.02.41.7
    10+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 46%
    Izzy PughF2210.45.00.60.1
    10+ pts 51% · 5+ reb 52%
    Kendall BarnesG143.42.31.10.1
    5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 61% · 2+ ast 28%
    Cece McNairC132.32.90.60.0
    5+ pts 18% · 3+ reb 52%
    Rita GomesG125.21.60.30.9
    5+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 56%

    W Michigan

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Alli CarlsonG357.14.04.01.3
    5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 53% · 4+ ast 55%
    Kailey StarksG3513.93.92.21.0
    15+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 57%
    Casey VyvermanG289.02.91.31.4
    10+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 38%
    Zuri RansomG278.13.81.10.5
    10+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 37%
    Faith WisemanF224.44.00.60.2
    5+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 21%
    Emily Van TimmerenF204.43.30.40.1
    5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 59%
    Alli HarnessG184.42.10.60.8
    5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 52%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Fri, Nov 20

    All games
    1. 6 PMprojected 68-67UMass at Boston College, women's: game page
    2. 7 PMprojected 67-68G Washington at Howard, women's: game page
    3. 7 PMprojected 63-59Miami OH at S Indiana, women's: game page
    4. 8 PMprojected 69-71CA Baptist at UC Davis, women's: game page
    5. 8:30 PMprojected 68-64Harvard at Colorado St, women's: game page
    6. 11 PMprojected 69-82Baylor vs USC, women's: game page
    Milwaukee next: at Loyola Chicago, Sat, Nov 14 · 36%W Michigan next: at Dayton, Sun, Nov 15 · 10%Milwaukee: schedule and oddsW Michigan: schedule and odds