Who will win Michigan vs Miami?
The model gives Michigan a 94% chance to beat Miami, with a projected score of Michigan 81, Miami 62.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Michigan | |||||
| OlsonG · 30 min | 17.2 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 15+ 62% | |
| SwordsG · 30 min | 13.7 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 15+ 41% | |
| DelfosseG · 28 min | 13.0 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 15+ 37% | |
| LoughridgeG · 30 min | 11.1 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 10+ 56% | |
 Miami | |||||
| RavivG · 32 min | 11.2 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 10+ 57% | |
| AdamsG · 29 min | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 10+ 42% | |
| KimpsonG · 30 min | 8.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 10+ 38% | |
| ZodiaC · 19 min | 6.7 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 5+ 63% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Olivia Olson: Michigan 81%Miami 19%
The white mark is the call with her: Michigan 94%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Michigan without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | ||||
| Olivia Olson | 8.7 | 81% | −13 | 77–66 |
| Te'Yala Delfosse | 7.5 | 84% | −10 | 77–65 |
| Syla Swords | 7.0 | 84% | −10 | 78–65 |
| Kendall Dudley | 5.3 | 88% | −6 | 78–64 |
| Miami | ||||
| Ahnay Adams | 3.9 | 97% | +3 | 83–60 |
| Gal Raviv | 3.9 | 97% | +3 | 83–60 |
| Amarachi Kimpson | 3.7 | 97% | +3 | 83–60 |
| Gianna Corbitt | 3.2 | 97% | +3 | 83–60 |
Change is in Michigan's win chance, in points. Scores read Michigan, then Miami. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Michigan 3-0WWW
- Nov 12W 81-58at ColumbiaCovered −18.5 · Under 142.5
- Nov 8W 109-52vs Wright St
- Nov 5W 77-66vs UConnCovered +8.5 · Over 142.5
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 89.0 and allowing 58.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Miami 4-0WWWW
- Nov 12W 78-46vs Saint Peter's
- Nov 8W 79-39vs Stetson
- Nov 5W 79-63vs Jacksonville
- Nov 2W 75-48vs FAU
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 77.8 and allowing 49.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Michigan | Miami | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 118.5 5th | 106.7 31st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 72.2 3rd | 84.5 56th |
| Possessions a game | 73.7 57th | 71.0 285th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.2% 10th | 49.7% 15th |
| Opponents' shooting | 42.6% 28th | 44.0% 85th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.6% 38th | 23.4% 178th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.1% 77th | 37.1% 29th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 236th | 0.21 216th |
The widest gap: Michigan's offense (5th) against Miami's defense (56th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Michigan 39, Miami 28
- First-half margin
- Michigan by 11.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.7
- Projected second half
- Michigan 42, Miami 33
- Second-half points, both teams
- 75.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Michigan, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 44.3 scored, 24.7 allowed
- Miami, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 40.0 scored, 21.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Michigan
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas LoughridgeG | 30 | 11.1 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 51% · 5+ ast 55% | |||||
| Syla SwordsG | 30 | 13.7 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 2+ ast 55% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Olivia OlsonG | 30 | 17.2 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 62% · 6+ reb 45% · 4+ ast 49% | |||||
| Te'Yala DelfosseG | 28 | 13.0 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 6+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Kendall DudleyG | 25 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Ashley SofilkanichF | 16 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 49% | |||||
| Courtney OgdenG | 16 | 7.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 70% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Devin CosgriffG | 13 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
Miami
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gal RavivG | 32 | 11.2 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Amarachi KimpsonG | 30 | 8.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Ahnay AdamsG | 29 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Gianna CorbittF | 20 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Natalie WetzelF | 19 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Jess-Mine ZodiaC | 19 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
| Dayana MendesG | 16 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Anna LiepinaF | 16 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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