Who will win Toledo vs Navy?
The model gives Toledo a 64% chance to beat Navy, with a projected score of Toledo 70, Navy 65.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Toledo | |||||
| CarruthersG · 32 min | 14.2 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 15+ 44% | |
| LoVettG · 28 min | 11.1 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 10+ 56% | |
| WeaverG · 35 min | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 10+ 46% | |
| ColeF · 27 min | 9.1 | 6.9 | 1.5 | 10+ 41% | |
 Navy | |||||
| Barnett-GayG · 32 min | 16.6 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 15+ 59% | |
| MesuchG · 31 min | 13.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 15+ 38% | |
| AlmeidaG · 27 min | 6.8 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 5+ 64% | |
| GibbonsG · 21 min | 6.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 5+ 61% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jyah LoVett: Toledo 58%Navy 42%
The white mark is the call with her: Toledo 64%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Toledo without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | ||||
| Jyah LoVett | 2.0 | 58% | −6 | 69–66 |
| Reagan Wilson | 1.6 | 59% | −5 | 69–66 |
| Evalyse Cole | 1.6 | 59% | −5 | 69–66 |
| Kendall Carruthers | 1.6 | 59% | −5 | 69–66 |
| Navy | ||||
| Zanai Barnett-Gay | 2.9 | 72% | +8 | 71–64 |
| Quinn Boettinger | 1.2 | 68% | +4 | 70–65 |
| Zoe Mesuch | 0.7 | 66% | +2 | 70–65 |
| Julianna Almeida | 0.6 | 66% | +2 | 70–65 |
Change is in Toledo's win chance, in points. Scores read Toledo, then Navy. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Toledo 1-2LLW
- Nov 10W 64-60vs Youngstown St
- Nov 7L 64-72vs Michigan St
- Nov 2L 57-61vs Louisiana Tech
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 61.7 and allowing 64.3
Navy 1-2WLL
- Nov 11L 61-77at James Madison
- Nov 7L 77-97at Temple
- Nov 2W 91-63at Mount St Marys
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 76.3 and allowing 79.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Toledo | Navy | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 90.1 176th | 94.1 126th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 87.5 71st | 96.8 234th |
| Possessions a game | 72.2 156th | 73.7 57th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.0% 275th | 48.5% 31st |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.8% 142nd | 46.4% 241st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.8% 203rd | 22.7% 114th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.1% 310th | 32.9% 172nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.16 359th | 0.21 195th |
The widest gap: Toledo's offense (176th) against Navy's defense (234th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Toledo 33, Navy 31
- First-half margin
- Toledo by 2.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.1
- Projected second half
- Toledo 36, Navy 35
- Second-half points, both teams
- 71.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Toledo, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 27.3 scored, 29.0 allowed
- Navy, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 38.3 scored, 39.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Toledo
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ella WeaverG | 35 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Kendall CarruthersG | 32 | 14.2 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 44% · 4+ ast 46% | |||||
| Jyah LoVettG | 28 | 11.1 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Evalyse ColeF | 27 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 7+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Natiah NelsonG | 26 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Reagan WilsonG | 18 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Destiny RobinsonG | 13 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 2+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Kiera EdmondsF | 12 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 51% | |||||
Navy
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zanai Barnett-GayG | 32 | 16.6 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 59% · 7+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Zoe MesuchG | 31 | 13.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 58% | |||||
| Julianna AlmeidaG | 27 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Mary GibbonsG | 21 | 6.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Lizzie HolderF | 20 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
| Quinn BoettingerF | 18 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Isa GrantF | 16 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Grace MinihaneG | 15 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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