Who will win Oregon St vs MTSU?
The model gives Oregon State a 78% chance to beat Middle Tennessee, with a projected score of Oregon St 71, MTSU 62.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Oregon St | |||||
| VillaG · 30 min | 17.6 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 20+ 37% | |
| YoungG · 29 min | 11.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 10+ 58% | |
| ShulerG · 32 min | 10.7 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 10+ 54% | |
| SmithF · 19 min | 7.6 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 5+ 70% | |
 MTSU | |||||
| BaugusG · 34 min | 13.4 | 7.5 | 1.4 | 15+ 39% | |
| WhitfieldG · 26 min | 10.1 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 10+ 49% | |
| KoneG · 30 min | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 10+ 39% | |
| VerhulstG · 29 min | 6.2 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 5+ 58% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kennedie Shuler: Oregon St 69%MTSU 31%
The white mark is the call with her: Oregon St 78%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Oregon St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon St | ||||
| Kennedie Shuler | 3.7 | 69% | −9 | 70–64 |
| Jenna Villa | 3.2 | 70% | −8 | 70–63 |
| Lara Alonso-Basurto | 2.1 | 73% | −5 | 70–63 |
| Taylor Young | 0.7 | 76% | −2 | 71–62 |
| MTSU | ||||
| Blair Baugus | 2.7 | 84% | +6 | 73–60 |
| Mya Kone | 0.8 | 80% | +2 | 72–61 |
Change is in Oregon St's win chance, in points. Scores read Oregon St, then MTSU. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Oregon St 2-1LWW
- Nov 11W 77-53vs Northwest Nazarene
- Nov 8W 85-64vs E Washington
- Nov 4L 77-79vs CA Baptist
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 79.7 and allowing 65.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Oregon St | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.3 71st | 89.6 184th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 92.5 141st | 94.3 178th |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 321st | 71.3 251st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.0% 49th | 43.8% 290th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.2% 228th | 46.2% 220th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.1% 148th | 26.2% 328th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.8% 237th | 34.4% 104th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 29th | 0.24 42nd |
The widest gap: Oregon St's offense (71st) against MTSU's defense (178th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Oregon St 34, MTSU 29
- First-half margin
- Oregon St by 5.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.2
- Projected second half
- Oregon St 37, MTSU 33
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Oregon St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 38.7 scored, 29.0 allowed
- MTSU, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 34.0 scored, 39.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Oregon St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedie ShulerG | 32 | 10.7 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 55% · 6+ ast 49% | |||||
| Jenna VillaG | 30 | 17.6 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| 20+ pts 37% · 2+ ast 51% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Taylor YoungG | 29 | 11.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Lara Alonso-BasurtoF | 27 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 8+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Evelini SmithF | 19 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 70% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
| Katelyn FieldG | 15 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Ashley UusitaloG | 12 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 21% · 2+ reb 30% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
| Maggie WarpusF | 11 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 56% | |||||
MTSU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blair BaugusG | 34 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 8+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Mya KoneG | 30 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Kirston VerhulstG | 29 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Xai WhitfieldG | 26 | 10.1 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 2+ ast 51% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Carsyn SwaneyG | 21 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Stanislava KabernickF | 18 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 21% · 5+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Aaliyah BlanchardG | 18 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Maayan CohenG | 14 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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