Saint Louis 84, MTSU 91
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 7:30 PM ET at Murphy Center. Saint Louis our rank 195 · 2-1; MTSU our rank 183 · 1-2.
Who won Saint Louis vs MTSU?
Final: Middle Tennessee 91, Saint Louis 84. Before tip-off the model gave Middle Tennessee a 73% chance to win, with a projected margin of 8.4 points for Middle Tennessee. Blair Baugus scored 23 for MTSU; Tyonna Bailey had 26 for Saint Louis.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Blair Baugus: Saint Louis 34%MTSU 66%
The white mark is the call with her: MTSU 73%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | MTSU without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTSU | ||||
| Blair Baugus | 2.7 | 66% | −7 | 74–80 |
| Mya Kone | 0.8 | 71% | −2 | 73–81 |
| Saint Louis | ||||
| Alyssa Koerkenmeier | 1.8 | 77% | +4 | 72–82 |
| D'Myjah Bolds | 0.9 | 75% | +2 | 72–82 |
| Tyonna Bailey | 0.6 | 74% | +1 | 73–82 |
Change is in MTSU's win chance, in points. Scores read Saint Louis, then MTSU. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Saint Louis
No games yet this season: this is its first.
MTSU
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Saint Louis | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 91.1 162nd | 89.6 184th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 97.6 249th | 94.3 178th |
| Possessions a game | 73.5 71st | 71.3 251st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.5% 34th | 43.8% 290th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.3% 56th | 46.2% 220th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.7% 200th | 26.2% 328th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.6% 329th | 34.4% 104th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 186th | 0.24 42nd |
The widest gap: MTSU's offense (184th) against Saint Louis's defense (249th), of 363 teams.
First half
MTSU led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 3.2 points and the total by 4.9.
- At halftime
- Saint Louis 35, MTSU 43
- Projected halftime score
- Saint Louis 34, MTSU 39
- First-half margin
- MTSU by 4.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Saint Louis
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyonna BaileyG | 39 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Mia BergstromG | 37 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| Jahda DenisG | 31 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Jameela JamesC | 27 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| D'Myjah BoldsF | 24 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 3 |
| Alyssa KoerkenmeierC | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Peyton OlufsonG | 20 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| Evelyn ShaneF | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jasaiyah WallaceF | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
MTSU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blair BaugusG | 45 | 23 | 12 | 4 | 0 |
| Mya KoneG | 40 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 3 |
| Stanislava KabernickF | 34 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 2 |
| Kirston VerhulstG | 28 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Maayan CohenG | 20 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Xai WhitfieldG | 19 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaliyah BlanchardG | 15 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| Carsyn SwaneyG | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Nicole DominguezC | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |