Who will win Oregon St vs Arizona?
The model gives Arizona a 59% chance to beat Oregon State, with a projected score of Arizona 71, Oregon St 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arizona | |||||
| SugapongG · 28 min | 10.5 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 10+ 52% | |
| GreenG · 24 min | 8.8 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 10+ 40% | |
| MorrisG · 26 min | 8.7 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 10+ 38% | |
| Presser-PalmerG · 25 min | 8.4 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 10+ 36% | |
 Oregon St | |||||
| VillaG · 31 min | 17.3 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 15+ 62% | |
| YoungG · 30 min | 11.1 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 10+ 56% | |
| ShulerG · 33 min | 10.6 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 10+ 52% | |
| Alonso-BasurtoF · 28 min | 7.3 | 7.6 | 0.7 | 5+ 68% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Breanna Williams: Oregon St 49%Arizona 51%
The white mark is the call with her: Arizona 59%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Arizona without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | ||||
| Breanna Williams | 2.8 | 51% | −8 | 70–70 |
| Gerda Raulusaityte | 2.1 | 53% | −6 | 69–70 |
| Sumayah Sugapong | 2.0 | 53% | −6 | 69–70 |
| Aliyahna Morris | 2.0 | 53% | −6 | 69–70 |
| Oregon St | ||||
| Kennedie Shuler | 3.7 | 70% | +11 | 66–73 |
| Jenna Villa | 3.2 | 69% | +10 | 67–73 |
| Lara Alonso-Basurto | 2.1 | 66% | +7 | 67–72 |
| Taylor Young | 0.7 | 62% | +3 | 68–72 |
Change is in Arizona's win chance, in points. Scores read Oregon St, then Arizona. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Oregon St 2-1LWW
- Nov 11W 77-53vs Northwest Nazarene
- Nov 8W 85-64vs E Washington
- Nov 4L 77-79vs CA Baptist
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 79.7 and allowing 65.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Oregon St | Arizona | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.3 71st | 95.8 106th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 92.5 141st | 89.6 102nd |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 321st | 74.0 47th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.0% 49th | 45.2% 192nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.2% 228th | 45.3% 161st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.1% 148th | 23.3% 170th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.8% 237th | 34.6% 95th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 29th | 0.25 24th |
The widest gap: Arizona's offense (106th) against Oregon St's defense (141st), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Oregon St 32, Arizona 34
- First-half margin
- Arizona by 1.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.1
- Projected second half
- Oregon St 36, Arizona 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Oregon St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 38.7 scored, 29.0 allowed
- Arizona, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 35.3 scored, 31.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Oregon St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedie ShulerG | 33 | 10.6 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 54% · 6+ ast 44% | |||||
| Jenna VillaG | 31 | 17.3 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 62% · 2+ ast 48% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Taylor YoungG | 30 | 11.1 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Lara Alonso-BasurtoF | 28 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 8+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
| Evelini SmithF | 19 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
| Katelyn FieldG | 15 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Ashley UusitaloG | 11 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 2+ reb 27% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Maggie WarpusF | 10 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 3+ reb 51% | |||||
Arizona
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sumayah SugapongG | 28 | 10.5 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Aliyahna MorrisG | 26 | 8.7 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 59% | |||||
| Makayla Presser-PalmerG | 25 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Jasleen GreenG | 24 | 8.8 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Arynn FinleyG | 22 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Gerda RaulusaityteF | 21 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Breanna WilliamsF | 17 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
| Molly LadwigG | 15 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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