New Mexico St at Arizona
Women's · Thursday, November 19, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at McKale Center at ALKEME Arena. New Mexico St our rank 250 · 2-1; Arizona our rank 101 · 2-1.
Who will win New Mexico St vs Arizona?
The model gives Arizona a 95% chance to beat New Mexico State, with a projected score of Arizona 76, New Mexico St 56.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | |||||
| SugapongG · 26 min | 10.6 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 10+ 53% | |
| GreenG · 24 min | 9.1 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 10+ 41% | |
| MorrisG · 25 min | 8.8 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 10+ 39% | |
| WilliamsF · 17 min | 8.8 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 10+ 39% | |
| New Mexico St | |||||
| TomasickaG · 25 min | 12.8 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 15+ 36% | |
| ChovinoF · 29 min | 9.6 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 10+ 46% | |
| MichelF · 31 min | 9.3 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 10+ 43% | |
| FontchaC · 25 min | 5.0 | 6.0 | 0.4 | 5+ 47% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Breanna Williams: New Mexico St 8%Arizona 92%
The white mark is the call with her: Arizona 95%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Arizona without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | ||||
| Breanna Williams | 2.8 | 92% | −3 | 57–74 |
| Gerda Raulusaityte | 2.1 | 93% | −2 | 57–75 |
| Sumayah Sugapong | 2.0 | 93% | −2 | 57–75 |
| Aliyahna Morris | 2.0 | 93% | −2 | 57–75 |
| New Mexico St | ||||
| Aimée Michel | 0.5 | 95% | 0 | 55–76 |
Change is in Arizona's win chance, in points. Scores read New Mexico St, then Arizona. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
New Mexico St 2-1LWW
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 63.0 and allowing 58.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| New Mexico St | Arizona | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 83.3 279th | 95.8 106th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 95.7 212th | 89.6 102nd |
| Possessions a game | 71.6 219th | 74.0 47th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.7% 157th | 45.2% 192nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.1% 49th | 45.3% 161st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 26.8% 336th | 23.3% 170th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 36.3% 44th | 34.6% 95th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 180th | 0.25 24th |
The widest gap: Arizona's defense (102nd) against New Mexico St's offense (279th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- New Mexico St 25, Arizona 37
- First-half margin
- Arizona by 11.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.4
- Projected second half
- New Mexico St 30, Arizona 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 69.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- New Mexico St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 29.0 scored, 28.0 allowed
- Arizona, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 35.3 scored, 31.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
New Mexico St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aimée MichelF | 31 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Stacy ChovinoF | 29 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Eva AgbaG | 27 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Raina TomasickaG | 25 | 12.8 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Lilyana FontchaC | 25 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 6+ reb 52% | |||||
| Eva HamlilG | 24 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Talia KavokaG | 23 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 25% to play · 2+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 29% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Aissatou Keita CissokoC | 13 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 3+ reb 43% | |||||
Missed the last game: Talia Kavoka (29 min a game).
Arizona
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sumayah SugapongG | 26 | 10.6 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Aliyahna MorrisG | 25 | 8.8 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 42% · 4+ ast 44% | |||||
| Makayla Presser-PalmerG | 24 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
| Jasleen GreenG | 24 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Arynn FinleyG | 22 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Gerda RaulusaityteF | 21 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 28% | |||||
| Breanna WilliamsF | 17 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
| Molly LadwigG | 16 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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