Who won Arizona vs Stanford?
Final: Arizona 84, Stanford 69. Before tip-off the model gave Arizona a 21% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 11.0 points for Stanford. Breanna Williams scored 23 for Arizona; Hailee Swain had 21 for Stanford.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Alexandra Eschmeyer: Arizona 29%Stanford 71%
The white mark is the call with her: Stanford 79%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Stanford without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stanford | ||||
| Alexandra Eschmeyer | 3.5 | 71% | −8 | 79–86 |
| Hailee Swain | 2.9 | 72% | −7 | 79–87 |
| Ines Sotelo Miguez | 2.9 | 72% | −7 | 78–87 |
| Shay Ijiwoye | 2.2 | 74% | −5 | 78–87 |
 Arizona | ||||
| Breanna Williams | 2.8 | 84% | +5 | 76–89 |
| Gerda Raulusaityte | 2.1 | 83% | +4 | 76–89 |
| Sumayah Sugapong | 2.0 | 83% | +4 | 76–89 |
| Aliyahna Morris | 2.0 | 83% | +4 | 76–89 |
Change is in Stanford's win chance, in points. Scores read Arizona, then Stanford. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Arizona
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Stanford
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Arizona | Stanford | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 95.8 106th | 99.2 79th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 89.6 102nd | 85.8 59th |
| Possessions a game | 74.0 47th | 73.0 96th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.2% 192nd | 48.9% 25th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.3% 161st | 47.1% 276th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.3% 170th | 26.9% 342nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.6% 95th | 32.8% 176th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 24th | 0.20 235th |
The widest gap: Stanford's defense (59th) against Arizona's offense (106th), of 363 teams.
First half
Arizona led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 17.3 points and the total by 5.3.
- At halftime
- Arizona 42, Stanford 31
- Projected halftime score
- Arizona 36, Stanford 42
- First-half margin
- Stanford by 6.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 78.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Arizona
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasleen GreenG | 32 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Sumayah SugapongG | 32 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Aliyahna MorrisG | 25 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| Breanna WilliamsF | 24 | 23 | 9 | 2 | 0 |
| Makayla Presser-PalmerG | 21 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Arynn FinleyG | 21 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Gerda RaulusaityteF | 16 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Molly LadwigG | 16 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Karolina UlanG | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Stanford
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shay IjiwoyeG | 39 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Hailee SwainG | 38 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| Ines Sotelo MiguezF | 30 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| Alexandra EschmeyerF | 24 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Charlotte TuhyF | 19 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Nora EzikeF | 17 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Ilse de VriesF | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Gracyn GilliardG | 13 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Kennedy UmehC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |