Oregon St at UC Riverside
Women's · Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at SRC Arena. Oregon St our rank 94 · 2-1; UC Riverside our rank 317 · 1-2.
Who will win Oregon St vs UC Riverside?
The model gives Oregon State a 93% chance to beat UC Riverside, with a projected score of Oregon St 75, UC Riverside 57.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon St | |||||
| VillaG · 29 min | 17.7 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 20+ 37% | |
| YoungG · 28 min | 11.5 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 10+ 59% | |
| ShulerG · 31 min | 10.7 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 10+ 54% | |
| SmithF · 19 min | 7.9 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 10+ 33% | |
| UC Riverside | |||||
| SwansonG · 27 min | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 10+ 37% | |
| ParahiG · 26 min | 8.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 10+ 34% | |
| PolkG · 30 min | 7.7 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 10+ 31% | |
| GambleG · 25 min | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 5+ 65% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kennedie Shuler: Oregon St 88%UC Riverside 12%
The white mark is the call with her: Oregon St 93%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Oregon St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon St | ||||
| Kennedie Shuler | 3.7 | 88% | −5 | 73–59 |
| Jenna Villa | 3.2 | 88% | −5 | 73–58 |
| Lara Alonso-Basurto | 2.1 | 90% | −3 | 74–58 |
| Taylor Young | 0.7 | 92% | −1 | 75–57 |
Change is in Oregon St's win chance, in points. Scores read Oregon St, then UC Riverside. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Oregon St 2-1LWW
- Nov 11W 77-53vs Northwest Nazarene
- Nov 8W 85-64vs E Washington
- Nov 4L 77-79vs CA Baptist
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 79.7 and allowing 65.3
UC Riverside 1-2WLL
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 65.3 and allowing 68.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Oregon St | UC Riverside | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.3 71st | 79.7 320th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 92.5 141st | 98.9 274th |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 321st | 72.5 135th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.0% 49th | 43.8% 288th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.2% 228th | 46.0% 214th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.1% 148th | 24.8% 272nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.8% 237th | 30.5% 297th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 29th | 0.24 50th |
The widest gap: Oregon St's offense (71st) against UC Riverside's defense (274th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Oregon St 37, UC Riverside 26
- First-half margin
- Oregon St by 10.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.6
- Projected second half
- Oregon St 39, UC Riverside 31
- Second-half points, both teams
- 69.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Oregon St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 38.7 scored, 29.0 allowed
- UC Riverside, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 28.0 scored, 33.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Oregon St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedie ShulerG | 31 | 10.7 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 55% · 6+ ast 52% | |||||
| Jenna VillaG | 29 | 17.7 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| 20+ pts 37% · 2+ ast 53% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Taylor YoungG | 28 | 11.5 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Lara Alonso-BasurtoF | 26 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 70% · 8+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Evelini SmithF | 19 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Katelyn FieldG | 16 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Ashley UusitaloG | 12 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 2+ reb 33% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
| Maggie WarpusF | 12 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 43% | |||||
UC Riverside
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaylani PolkG | 30 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ ast 51% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Taylor SwansonG | 27 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Graecyn ParahiG | 26 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| London GambleG | 25 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Kyori LloydF | 21 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Amy PatemanG | 20 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Harisa MehmedovicF | 20 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 50% to play · 5+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
| Alana WhiteF | 14 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 3+ reb 46% | |||||
Missed the last game: Harisa Mehmedovic (20 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…