Who will win Utah vs Iowa?
The model gives Iowa a 95% chance to beat Utah, with a projected score of Iowa 79, Utah 58.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Iowa | |||||
| CarnegieG · 27 min | 15.8 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 15+ 54% | |
| HeidenC · 23 min | 14.8 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 15+ 48% | |
| WrightG · 29 min | 11.7 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 10+ 60% | |
| WoliczkoF · 25 min | 11.3 | 5.9 | 1.2 | 10+ 58% | |
 Utah | |||||
| GirardiG · 28 min | 12.6 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 15+ 34% | |
| EvansF · 28 min | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 5+ 66% | |
| JonesG · 23 min | 6.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 5+ 63% | |
| BradleyF · 18 min | 6.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 5+ 60% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Ava Heiden: Utah 12%Iowa 88%
The white mark is the call with her: Iowa 95%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Iowa without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | ||||
| Ava Heiden | 5.8 | 88% | −7 | 61–76 |
| Dani Carnegie | 5.3 | 89% | −6 | 61–76 |
| Chazadi Wright | 5.1 | 89% | −6 | 61–76 |
| Amari Whiting | 3.6 | 91% | −4 | 60–77 |
| Utah | ||||
| Lena Girardi | 3.3 | 97% | +2 | 57–80 |
| Filipa Barros | 3.2 | 97% | +2 | 57–80 |
| Chyra Evans | 2.9 | 97% | +2 | 57–80 |
| Laia Conesa | 1.9 | 97% | +2 | 57–80 |
Change is in Iowa's win chance, in points. Scores read Utah, then Iowa. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Utah 3-0WWW
- Nov 9W 65-47vs Bethune
- Nov 6W 72-63vs Colorado St
- Nov 3W 76-67vs E Washington
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 71.0 and allowing 59.0
Iowa 3-1WWLW
- Nov 12W 78-40vs Northern IowaCovered −32.5 · Under 135.5
- Nov 8L 79-91at UConnCovered +13.5 · Over 138.5
- Nov 5W 80-39vs E Illinois
- Nov 2W 73-45vs Towson
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 77.5 and allowing 53.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Utah | Iowa | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.7 68th | 111.6 16th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 89.5 100th | 76.1 9th |
| Possessions a game | 71.2 265th | 72.0 179th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.8% 103rd | 49.8% 14th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.2% 51st | 43.8% 77th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.2% 153rd | 23.2% 156th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.9% 286th | 34.1% 117th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 161st | 0.19 312th |
The widest gap: Iowa's offense (16th) against Utah's defense (100th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Utah 27, Iowa 38
- First-half margin
- Iowa by 11.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.9
- Projected second half
- Utah 32, Iowa 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 72.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Utah, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 33.7 scored, 24.7 allowed
- Iowa, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 38.5 scored, 26.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Utah
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lena GirardiG | 28 | 12.6 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Chyra EvansF | 28 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 5+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Filipa BarrosG | 28 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Laia ConesaG | 28 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Peyton JonesG | 23 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Olivia BradleyF | 18 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 49% to play · 5+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Rylee LittleF | 17 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 53% | |||||
| Evelina OttoF | 17 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
Missed the last game: Olivia Bradley (23 min a game).
Iowa
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chazadi WrightG | 29 | 11.7 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 4+ ast 52% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Dani CarnegieG | 27 | 15.8 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 46% · 4+ ast 44% | |||||
| McKenna WoliczkoF | 25 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 6+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Amari WhitingG | 24 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 46% | |||||
| Ava HeidenC | 23 | 14.8 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 6+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Taylor StremlowG | 18 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 3+ ast 52% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Journey HoustonG | 17 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Jocelyn FaisonG | 16 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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