Who will win Oklahoma vs Virginia?
The model gives Oklahoma a 71% chance to beat Virginia, with a projected score of Oklahoma 78, Virginia 71.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Oklahoma | |||||
| BellF · 24 min | 13.7 | 7.5 | 1.6 | 15+ 41% | |
| ChavezG · 24 min | 12.6 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 15+ 34% | |
| WilliamsF · 26 min | 11.0 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 10+ 56% | |
| StewartF · 20 min | 8.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 10+ 40% | |
 Virginia | |||||
| JohnsonG · 29 min | 16.8 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 15+ 60% | |
| AsareG · 29 min | 14.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 15+ 48% | |
| HurdF · 26 min | 11.3 | 5.2 | 1.1 | 10+ 58% | |
| PiattiF · 24 min | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 5+ 55% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Sahara Williams: Oklahoma 54%Virginia 46%
The white mark is the call with her: Oklahoma 71%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Oklahoma without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma | ||||
| Sahara Williams | 5.6 | 54% | −17 | 75–74 |
| Brooklyn Stewart | 4.0 | 58% | −13 | 76–73 |
| Caya Smith | 4.0 | 59% | −12 | 76–73 |
| Isimenme Ozzy-Momodu | 4.0 | 59% | −12 | 76–73 |
| Virginia | ||||
| Kymora Johnson | 6.1 | 85% | +14 | 81–68 |
| Breona Hurd | 3.8 | 80% | +9 | 80–69 |
| Mary-Anna Asare | 2.8 | 78% | +7 | 79–70 |
| Adeang Ring | 2.8 | 78% | +7 | 79–70 |
Change is in Oklahoma's win chance, in points. Scores read Oklahoma, then Virginia. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Oklahoma 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 98-44vs San José St
- Nov 8W 95-38vs Morgan St
- Nov 2W 91-79vs North Carolina
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 94.7 and allowing 53.7
Virginia 4-0WWWW
- Nov 11W 81-39vs Drexel
- Nov 8W 99-58vs William & Mary
- Nov 5W 72-57at Davidson
- Nov 2W 87-45vs MD Eastern
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 84.8 and allowing 49.8
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Oklahoma | Virginia | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 113.7 10th | 107.1 28th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 79.2 18th | 82.2 37th |
| Possessions a game | 76.3 5th | 71.3 251st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.8% 56th | 51.8% 6th |
| Opponents' shooting | 41.6% 18th | 42.7% 35th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.5% 182nd | 23.0% 138th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 41.8% 1st | 33.8% 137th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 260th | 0.21 214th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Oklahoma 37, Virginia 33
- First-half margin
- Oklahoma by 3.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.4
- Projected second half
- Oklahoma 40, Virginia 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Oklahoma, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 43.7 scored, 27.3 allowed
- Virginia, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 46.0 scored, 25.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Oklahoma
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sahara WilliamsF | 26 | 11.0 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| LeeLee BellF | 24 | 13.7 | 7.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 8+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Aaliyah ChavezG | 24 | 12.6 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| 25% to play · 15+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Caya SmithF | 22 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Jordan SpeiserG | 22 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Keziah LoftonG | 21 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Brooklyn StewartF | 20 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Sa'Myah SmithF | 20 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 6+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
Missed the last game: Aaliyah Chavez (25 min a game).
Virginia
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kymora JohnsonG | 29 | 16.8 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Mary-Anna AsareG | 29 | 14.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Breona HurdF | 26 | 11.3 | 5.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Caterina PiattiF | 24 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Sintija AukstikalnyteG | 20 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Adeang RingF | 17 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
| Eris LesterG | 16 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
| Erica GribbleG | 14 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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