MD Eastern 45, Virginia 87
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at John Paul Jones Arena. MD Eastern our rank 287 · 1-2; Virginia our rank 29 · 4-0.
Who won MD Eastern vs Virginia?
Final: Virginia 87, Maryland Eastern Shore 45. Before tip-off the model gave Virginia a 98% chance to win, with a projected margin of 28.7 points for Virginia. Kymora Johnson scored 21 for Virginia; Kalise Hill had 11 for MD Eastern.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Kymora Johnson: MD Eastern 5%Virginia 95%
The white mark is the call with her: Virginia 98%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Virginia without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | ||||
| Kymora Johnson | 6.1 | 95% | −3 | 67–90 |
| Breona Hurd | 3.8 | 96% | −2 | 66–91 |
| Mary-Anna Asare | 2.8 | 97% | −1 | 65–91 |
| Adeang Ring | 2.8 | 97% | −1 | 65–91 |
Change is in Virginia's win chance, in points. Scores read MD Eastern, then Virginia. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
MD Eastern
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Virginia
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| MD Eastern | Virginia | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 80.6 312th | 107.1 28th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 96.3 224th | 82.2 37th |
| Possessions a game | 73.7 57th | 71.3 251st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.1% 270th | 51.8% 6th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.6% 178th | 42.7% 35th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.9% 319th | 23.0% 138th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.7% 326th | 33.8% 137th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 127th | 0.21 214th |
The widest gap: Virginia's defense (37th) against MD Eastern's offense (312th), of 363 teams.
First half
Virginia led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 7.5 points and the total by 12.3.
- At halftime
- MD Eastern 19, Virginia 43
- Projected halftime score
- MD Eastern 29, Virginia 45
- First-half margin
- Virginia by 16.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
MD Eastern
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaliya PerryF | 30 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Marley JeffersF | 26 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kalise HillG | 26 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Chasity WilsonG | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jailynn ClaytonG | 19 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Aliza MurrayG | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Mak MooreG | 15 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaida CameronG | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Desi TaylorG | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Virginia
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breona HurdF | 29 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 1 |
| Caterina PiattiF | 28 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Kymora JohnsonG | 27 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| Mary-Anna AsareG | 26 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Adeang RingF | 22 | 13 | 10 | 0 | 1 |
| Sintija AukstikalnyteG | 17 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Erica GribbleG | 16 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Janae WalkerF | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Olivia McGheeG | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |