Virginia at Old Dominion
Women's · Sunday, November 15, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Chartway Arena. Virginia our rank 29 · 4-0; Old Dominion our rank 208 · 3-1.
Who will win Virginia vs Old Dominion?
The model gives Virginia a 97% chance to beat Old Dominion, with a projected score of Virginia 82, Old Dominion 60.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | |||||
| JohnsonG · 28 min | 18.1 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 20+ 39% | |
| AsareG · 27 min | 16.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 15+ 55% | |
| HurdF · 25 min | 12.4 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 10+ 65% | |
| PiattiF · 23 min | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 5+ 61% | |
| Old Dominion | |||||
| VanceG · 27 min | 10.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 10+ 49% | |
| StackF · 26 min | 10.0 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 10+ 48% | |
| BrackensF · 23 min | 8.9 | 6.5 | 0.7 | 10+ 40% | |
| DavisG · 26 min | 8.8 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 10+ 40% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kymora Johnson: Virginia 91%Old Dominion 9%
The white mark is the call with her: Virginia 97%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Virginia without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | ||||
| Kymora Johnson | 6.1 | 91% | −6 | 79–63 |
| Breona Hurd | 3.8 | 94% | −3 | 80–62 |
| Mary-Anna Asare | 2.8 | 95% | −2 | 81–61 |
| Adeang Ring | 2.8 | 95% | −2 | 81–61 |
| Old Dominion | ||||
| Riley Stack | 1.6 | 98% | +1 | 83–59 |
| Shadasia Brackens | 1.2 | 97% | 0 | 83–59 |
Change is in Virginia's win chance, in points. Scores read Virginia, then Old Dominion. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Virginia 4-0WWWW
- Nov 11W 81-39vs Drexel
- Nov 8W 99-58vs William & Mary
- Nov 5W 72-57at Davidson
- Nov 2W 87-45vs MD Eastern
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 84.8 and allowing 49.8
Old Dominion 3-1WWWL
- Nov 12L 67-90at Richmond
- Nov 8W 88-78vs Tennessee St
- Nov 5W 69-55vs Virginia State
- Nov 2W 62-58at C Michigan
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 71.5 and allowing 70.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Virginia | Old Dominion | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 107.1 28th | 92.2 149th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 82.2 37th | 100.4 306th |
| Possessions a game | 71.3 251st | 73.1 92nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.8% 6th | 45.5% 174th |
| Opponents' shooting | 42.7% 35th | 46.3% 232nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.0% 138th | 23.4% 178th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.8% 137th | 38.2% 12th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 214th | 0.22 122nd |
The widest gap: Virginia's offense (28th) against Old Dominion's defense (306th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Virginia 40, Old Dominion 27
- First-half margin
- Virginia by 13.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.3
- Projected second half
- Virginia 42, Old Dominion 33
- Second-half points, both teams
- 74.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Virginia, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 46.0 scored, 25.0 allowed
- Old Dominion, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 34.0 scored, 31.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Virginia
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kymora JohnsonG | 28 | 18.1 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 |
| 20+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 50% · 5+ ast 51% | |||||
| Mary-Anna AsareG | 27 | 16.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Breona HurdF | 25 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 6+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Caterina PiattiF | 23 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Sintija AukstikalnyteG | 20 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Adeang RingF | 17 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Eris LesterG | 16 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
| Erica GribbleG | 14 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
Old Dominion
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalanna CarterG | 28 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 2+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Trinity VanceG | 27 | 10.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Mia DavisG | 26 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Riley StackF | 26 | 10.0 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Shadasia BrackensF | 23 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 7+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Jaida McDonaldF | 17 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
| Vanessa SepulvedaG | 16 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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