Old Dominion 62, C Michigan 58
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 11:00 AM ET at McGuirk Arena. Old Dominion our rank 208 · 3-1; C Michigan our rank 253 · 0-3.
Who won Old Dominion vs C Michigan?
Final: Old Dominion 62, Central Michigan 58. Before tip-off the model gave Old Dominion a 31% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 7.0 points for Central Michigan. Mia Davis scored 15 for Old Dominion; Summer Davis had 24 for C Michigan.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Indya Davis: Old Dominion 33%C Michigan 67%
The white mark is the call with her: C Michigan 69%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | C Michigan without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C Michigan | ||||
| Indya Davis | 1.0 | 67% | −2 | 77–83 |
| Summer Davis | 0.8 | 67% | −2 | 77–84 |
| Old Dominion | ||||
| Riley Stack | 1.6 | 73% | +4 | 76–85 |
| Shadasia Brackens | 1.2 | 72% | +3 | 76–85 |
Change is in C Michigan's win chance, in points. Scores read Old Dominion, then C Michigan. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Old Dominion
No games yet this season: this is its first.
C Michigan
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Old Dominion | C Michigan | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 92.2 149th | 76.5 348th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 100.4 306th | 89.2 97th |
| Possessions a game | 73.1 92nd | 74.3 29th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.5% 174th | 38.7% 363rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.3% 232nd | 46.4% 235th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.4% 178th | 29.4% 358th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 38.2% 12th | 30.4% 302nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 122nd | 0.21 173rd |
The widest gap: C Michigan's defense (97th) against Old Dominion's offense (149th), of 363 teams.
First half
C Michigan led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 1.0 points and the total by 19.3.
- At halftime
- Old Dominion 27, C Michigan 30
- Projected halftime score
- Old Dominion 36, C Michigan 40
- First-half margin
- C Michigan by 4.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 76.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Old Dominion
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mia DavisG | 33 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Trinity VanceG | 31 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 3 |
| Dalanna CarterG | 30 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Shadasia BrackensF | 26 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 1 |
| Jaida McDonaldF | 23 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Vanessa SepulvedaG | 18 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Riley StackF | 12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Landin KelleyF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Delaney SnyderC | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
C Michigan
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Summer DavisG | 36 | 24 | 9 | 0 | 3 |
| Nevaeh WilliamsG | 33 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 0 |
| Riley SmithF | 32 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Indya DavisG | 32 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 0 |
| Kara BartelsC | 22 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Jailenn GreenG | 20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jayda MosleyG | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rylan BuschellG | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lilah TurnbullG | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |