William & Mary at Old Dominion
Women's · Thursday, November 19, 2026, 6:30 PM ET at Chartway Arena. William & Mary our rank 188 · 2-1; Old Dominion our rank 208 · 3-1.
Who will win William & Mary vs Old Dominion?
The model gives Old Dominion a 56% chance to beat William & Mary, with a projected score of Old Dominion 72, William & Mary 70.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion | |||||
| VanceG · 29 min | 12.4 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 10+ 65% | |
| StackF · 27 min | 12.3 | 6.8 | 1.0 | 10+ 64% | |
| DavisG · 28 min | 10.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 10+ 55% | |
| BrackensF · 23 min | 10.6 | 7.7 | 0.9 | 10+ 53% | |
| William & Mary | |||||
| GeddesG · 33 min | 16.4 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 15+ 57% | |
| DanceG · 27 min | 11.7 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 10+ 60% | |
| CarltonG · 24 min | 10.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 10+ 51% | |
| FoxF · 25 min | 9.7 | 8.3 | 1.4 | 10+ 46% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Riley Stack: William & Mary 49%Old Dominion 51%
The white mark is the call with her: Old Dominion 56%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Old Dominion without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion | ||||
| Riley Stack | 1.6 | 51% | −5 | 71–71 |
| Shadasia Brackens | 1.2 | 52% | −4 | 70–71 |
| William & Mary | ||||
| Natalie Fox | 1.1 | 59% | +3 | 69–72 |
| Cassidy Geddes | 1.0 | 59% | +3 | 69–72 |
| Monet Dance | 0.9 | 59% | +3 | 69–72 |
Change is in Old Dominion's win chance, in points. Scores read William & Mary, then Old Dominion. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
William & Mary 2-1WWL
- Nov 8L 58-99at Virginia
- Nov 5W 78-54vs Tennessee St
- Nov 2W 89-48vs Chowan
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 75.0 and allowing 67.0
Old Dominion 3-1WWWL
- Nov 12L 67-90at Richmond
- Nov 8W 88-78vs Tennessee St
- Nov 5W 69-55vs Virginia State
- Nov 2W 62-58at C Michigan
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 71.5 and allowing 70.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| William & Mary | Old Dominion | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 91.0 163rd | 92.2 149th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 96.6 230th | 100.4 306th |
| Possessions a game | 71.5 225th | 73.1 92nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.5% 170th | 45.5% 174th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.0% 270th | 46.3% 232nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.7% 113th | 23.4% 178th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.1% 75th | 38.2% 12th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 268th | 0.22 122nd |
The widest gap: William & Mary's offense (163rd) against Old Dominion's defense (306th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- William & Mary 33, Old Dominion 34
- First-half margin
- Old Dominion by 1.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.0
- Projected second half
- William & Mary 37, Old Dominion 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 74.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- William & Mary, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 32.0 scored, 37.0 allowed
- Old Dominion, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 34.0 scored, 31.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
William & Mary
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cassidy GeddesG | 33 | 16.4 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Monet DanceG | 27 | 11.7 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Natalie FoxF | 25 | 9.7 | 8.3 | 1.4 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 8+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Denver CarltonG | 24 | 10.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Skyla MastronardiG | 22 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| Marley LongF | 21 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Sophia LeGoullonG | 18 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Ari MercadoG | 16 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
Old Dominion
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalanna CarterG | 30 | 8.2 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Trinity VanceG | 29 | 12.4 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Mia DavisG | 28 | 10.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Riley StackF | 27 | 12.3 | 6.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 7+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Shadasia BrackensF | 23 | 10.6 | 7.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 8+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Jaida McDonaldF | 17 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Vanessa SepulvedaG | 15 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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