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William & Mary at Richmond

Women's · Sunday, November 15, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Robins Center. William & Mary our rank 188 · 2-1; Richmond our rank 87 · 2-2.

Who will win William & Mary vs Richmond?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Richmond a 89% chance to beat William & Mary, with a projected score of Richmond 77, William & Mary 61.

To winRichmond 89%William & Mary 11%
Projected score61–77William & Mary, then Richmond
Margin15.5Richmond · no line posted
Total137.7no line posted
First half28–37Richmond ahead 80%
William & Mary by 10Evenby 10by 20by 30by 40Richmond by 50Model: Richmond by 15.5William & Mary by 10by 10by 30Richmond by 50Model: Richmond by 15.5

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Richmond
SweeneyG · 35 min15.33.03.915+ 51%
ScottG · 32 min13.54.53.415+ 40%
PersichettiG · 32 min10.63.71.810+ 53%
IharaF · 26 min9.16.12.010+ 42%
William & Mary
GeddesG · 31 min14.02.71.915+ 43%
DanceG · 26 min10.12.62.710+ 49%
CarltonG · 24 min9.22.81.410+ 42%
FoxF · 24 min8.57.41.210+ 37%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit her

Without Ally Sweeney: William & Mary 18%Richmond 82%

The white mark is the call with her: Richmond 89%.

PlayerPoints a game she addsRichmond without herChangeProjected score
Richmond
Ally Sweeney3.982%−763–75
Ava Persichetti2.785%−462–75
Aneisha Scott2.685%−462–75
Rayne Wright1.487%−262–76
William & Mary
Natalie Fox1.191%+261–77
Cassidy Geddes1.090%+161–77
Monet Dance0.990%+161–77

Change is in Richmond's win chance, in points. Scores read William & Mary, then Richmond. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    William & Mary 2-1WWL

    1. Nov 8L 58-99at Virginia
    2. Nov 5W 78-54vs Tennessee St
    3. Nov 2W 89-48vs Chowan
    Last 3
    2–1, scoring 75.0 and allowing 67.0

    Richmond 2-2WLLW

    1. Nov 12W 90-67vs Old Dominion
    2. Nov 8L 60-73vs Rice
    3. Nov 6L 57-65vs Princeton
    4. Nov 2W 83-71at Charlotte
    Last 4
    2–2, scoring 72.5 and allowing 69.0

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    William & MaryRichmond
    Points scored per 100 possessions91.0 163rd102.6 54th
    Points allowed per 10096.6 230th93.8 169th
    Possessions a game71.5 225th69.8 345th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)45.5% 170th48.5% 31st
    Opponents' shooting47.0% 270th47.5% 298th
    Turnovers, share of possessions22.7% 113th22.9% 123rd
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses35.1% 75th30.4% 305th
    Free throws per shot0.20 268th0.20 268th

    The widest gap: Richmond's offense (54th) against William & Mary's defense (230th), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    William & Mary 28, Richmond 37
    First-half margin
    Richmond by 8.9
    First-half points, both teams
    65.3
    Projected second half
    William & Mary 33, Richmond 39
    Second-half points, both teams
    72.4
    Tied at the half
    4%
    William & Mary, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 3 · 32.0 scored, 37.0 allowed
    Richmond, first halves so far
    Led 3 of 4 · 36.2 scored, 34.0 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    William & Mary

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Cassidy GeddesG3114.02.71.91.5
    15+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 54%
    Monet DanceG2610.12.62.71.4
    10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 48%
    Natalie FoxF248.57.41.20.1
    10+ pts 37% · 8+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 31%
    Denver CarltonG249.22.81.41.0
    10+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 58%
    Skyla MastronardiG226.33.01.81.0
    5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 52%
    Marley LongF213.54.31.00.4
    5+ pts 30% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 30%
    Sophia LeGoullonG192.92.80.50.5
    5+ pts 24% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 36%
    Ari MercadoG173.61.60.90.4
    5+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 31%

    Richmond

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Ally SweeneyG3515.33.03.91.7
    15+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 54% · 4+ ast 52%
    Ava PersichettiG3210.63.71.81.7
    10+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 51%
    Aneisha ScottG3213.54.53.40.8
    15+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 50%
    Arisa IharaF269.16.12.00.5
    10+ pts 42% · 6+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 57%
    Josie FontanaF268.07.21.70.7
    10+ pts 34% · 2+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 48%
    Rayne WrightG144.71.90.90.3
    5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 25%
    Emma SchoenG113.21.30.60.5
    5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 36%
    Shaneka CampbellF101.82.00.30.1
    2+ reb 53%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Sun, Nov 15

    All games
    1. 1 PMprojected 77-74Vanderbilt vs Iowa, women's: game page
    2. 2 PMprojected 73-74Florida at Florida St, women's: game page
    3. 2 PMprojected 69-69Michigan St at Harvard, women's: game page
    4. 2 PMprojected 74-74Villanova at Fairfield, women's: game page
    5. 4 PMprojected 68-67Montana St at UNLV, women's: game page
    6. 5:30 PMprojected 77-70UConn at Louisville, women's: game page
    William & Mary next: at Old Dominion, Thu, Nov 19 · 44%Richmond next: at Delaware, Thu, Nov 19 · 92%William & Mary: schedule and oddsRichmond: schedule and odds