Who won Richmond vs Charlotte?
Final: Richmond 83, Charlotte 71. Before tip-off the model gave Richmond a 81% chance to win, with a projected margin of 11.9 points for Richmond. Aneisha Scott scored 30 for Richmond; Zoe Best had 20 for Charlotte.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Ally Sweeney: Richmond 72%Charlotte 28%
The white mark is the call with her: Richmond 81%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Richmond without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Richmond | ||||
| Ally Sweeney | 3.9 | 72% | −9 | 83–75 |
| Ava Persichetti | 2.7 | 75% | −6 | 83–74 |
| Aneisha Scott | 2.6 | 75% | −6 | 83–74 |
| Rayne Wright | 1.4 | 78% | −3 | 84–73 |
 Charlotte | ||||
| Da'Brya Clark | 1.0 | 82% | +1 | 85–72 |
| Isis Johnson-Musah | 0.8 | 82% | +1 | 85–72 |
| Zoe Best | 0.7 | 82% | +1 | 85–72 |
| Ja'Navia Gage | 0.6 | 82% | +1 | 85–72 |
Change is in Richmond's win chance, in points. Scores read Richmond, then Charlotte. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Richmond
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Charlotte
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Richmond | Charlotte | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.6 54th | 91.8 153rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.8 169th | 96.5 228th |
| Possessions a game | 69.8 345th | 71.3 251st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.5% 31st | 45.9% 143rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.5% 298th | 48.4% 326th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.9% 123rd | 25.3% 296th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.4% 305th | 33.2% 155th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 268th | 0.22 138th |
The widest gap: Richmond's offense (54th) against Charlotte's defense (228th), of 363 teams.
First half
Richmond led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 4.1 points and the total by 3.6.
- At halftime
- Richmond 41, Charlotte 30
- Projected halftime score
- Richmond 41, Charlotte 34
- First-half margin
- Richmond by 6.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Richmond
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aneisha ScottG | 37 | 30 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| Ally SweeneyG | 37 | 22 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| Ava PersichettiG | 34 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| Josie FontanaF | 29 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 2 |
| Arisa IharaF | 21 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Rayne WrightG | 16 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaneka CampbellF | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kate SchindlerG | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bridget RifenburgG | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Charlotte
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zoe BestG | 30 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| Charish ThompsonF | 27 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Mariah SainG | 23 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Da'Brya ClarkG | 23 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
| Isis Johnson-MusahF | 22 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Caroline ThielG | 19 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Alana RouserF | 16 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Navia GageF | 13 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jazlyn HarrisG | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |