Gonzaga v California
Women's · Monday, November 23, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at George Q. Cannon Activities Center. Gonzaga our rank 74 · 2-1; California our rank 26 · 4-0.
Who will win Gonzaga vs California?
The model gives California a 82% chance to beat Gonzaga, with a projected score of California 77, Gonzaga 65.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | |||||
| TwidaleG · 32 min | 15.5 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 15+ 52% | |
| DowellG · 23 min | 12.4 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 10+ 64% | |
| BarnesF · 28 min | 10.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 10+ 49% | |
| MaulG · 26 min | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 10+ 46% | |
| Gonzaga | |||||
| WhittakerF · 26 min | 15.1 | 8.9 | 1.9 | 15+ 50% | |
| TurnerG · 30 min | 12.4 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 10+ 65% | |
| SmithF · 24 min | 8.0 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 10+ 34% | |
| AokusoG · 24 min | 6.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 5+ 64% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Lulu Twidale: Gonzaga 29%California 71%
The white mark is the call with her: California 82%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | California without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | ||||
| Lulu Twidale | 4.6 | 71% | −11 | 68–74 |
| Gisella Maul | 4.2 | 72% | −10 | 67–75 |
| Shannon Dowell | 3.7 | 73% | −9 | 67–75 |
| Taylor Barnes | 3.7 | 73% | −9 | 67–75 |
| Gonzaga | ||||
| Lauren Whittaker | 4.9 | 91% | +9 | 63–79 |
| Allie Turner | 2.7 | 87% | +5 | 64–78 |
| Taylor Smith | 1.8 | 86% | +4 | 64–78 |
| Teryn Gardner | 1.8 | 86% | +4 | 64–78 |
Change is in California's win chance, in points. Scores read Gonzaga, then California. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Gonzaga 2-1WLW
- Nov 8W 85-58vs UC Riverside
- Nov 6L 75-86vs Idaho
- Nov 2W 62-56vs N Dakota St
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 74.0 and allowing 66.7
California 4-0WWWW
- Nov 12W 78-64vs Charleston
- Nov 8W 87-65vs San Francisco
- Nov 5W 100-46vs Long Beach St
- Nov 2W 80-58vs Washington St
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 86.2 and allowing 58.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Gonzaga | California | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.0 59th | 106.7 30th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 90.5 116th | 81.2 28th |
| Possessions a game | 72.1 164th | 72.7 115th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.1% 201st | 47.5% 70th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.3% 230th | 44.5% 122nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.6% 193rd | 21.8% 50th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.9% 174th | 31.9% 226th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 106th | 0.21 186th |
The widest gap: California's offense (30th) against Gonzaga's defense (116th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Gonzaga 30, California 37
- First-half margin
- California by 6.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.2
- Projected second half
- Gonzaga 35, California 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 74.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Gonzaga, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 30.7 scored, 34.3 allowed
- California, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 40.5 scored, 24.2 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Gonzaga
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allie TurnerG | 30 | 12.4 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 2+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Lauren WhittakerF | 26 | 15.1 | 8.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 9+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Taylor SmithF | 24 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 38% | |||||
| Teryn GardnerG | 24 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 37% | |||||
| Zeryhia AokusoG | 24 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Ines BettencourtG | 20 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| McKynnlie DalanF | 17 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Julia WilsonG | 16 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 38% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
California
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lulu TwidaleG | 32 | 15.5 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 2.6 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 5+ reb 51% · 3+ threes 44% | |||||
| Taylor BarnesF | 28 | 10.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Ruby PerkinsG | 27 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Gisella MaulG | 26 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Shannon DowellG | 23 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 6+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Albina SylaC | 20 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 6+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
| Zara RussellF | 16 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Jovana JevtovicC | 14 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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