Who won FAU vs Miami?
Final: Miami 75, Florida Atlantic 48. Before tip-off the model gave Miami a 98% chance to win, with a projected margin of 27.5 points for Miami. Ahnay Adams scored 21 for Miami; Erin Rodgers had 13 for FAU.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Ahnay Adams: FAU 4%Miami 96%
The white mark is the call with her: Miami 98%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Miami without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Miami | ||||
| Ahnay Adams | 3.9 | 96% | −2 | 69–93 |
| Gal Raviv | 3.9 | 96% | −2 | 69–93 |
| Amarachi Kimpson | 3.7 | 96% | −2 | 69–93 |
| Gianna Corbitt | 3.2 | 96% | −2 | 69–93 |
 FAU | ||||
| Vivian Onugha | 1.2 | 98% | 0 | 66–95 |
| Grace Carstensen | 0.9 | 98% | 0 | 67–95 |
| Madi Gewirtz | 0.9 | 98% | 0 | 67–95 |
| Skyla Tuthill | 0.9 | 98% | 0 | 67–95 |
Change is in Miami's win chance, in points. Scores read FAU, then Miami. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| FAU | Miami | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 89.7 183rd | 106.7 31st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 89.0 95th | 84.5 56th |
| Possessions a game | 72.0 179th | 71.0 285th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.6% 161st | 49.7% 15th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.0% 44th | 44.0% 85th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.3% 253rd | 23.4% 178th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.5% 199th | 37.1% 29th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 319th | 0.21 216th |
The widest gap: Miami's defense (56th) against FAU's offense (183rd), of 363 teams.
First half
Miami led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 4.9 points and the total by 15.6.
- At halftime
- FAU 25, Miami 36
- Projected halftime score
- FAU 30, Miami 46
- First-half margin
- Miami by 15.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 76.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
FAU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skyla TuthillG | 26 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Mani PiljevicG | 23 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Madi GewirtzG | 22 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaelynn HouseyG | 19 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Erin RodgersG | 19 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Juju LerouxG | 19 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| Mia JordanF | 17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Grace CarstensenG | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keke ButlerG | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Miami
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gal RavivG | 33 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Amarachi KimpsonG | 31 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ahnay AdamsG | 28 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 2 |
| Gianna CorbittF | 24 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 0 |
| Dayana MendesG | 18 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jess-Mine ZodiaC | 17 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Natalie WetzelF | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Soma OkoloF | 12 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Anna LiepinaF | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |