Who won Xavier vs Purdue FW?
Final: Xavier 75, Purdue Fort Wayne 63. Before tip-off the model gave Xavier a 36% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 5.0 points for Purdue Fort Wayne. Lucile Jerome scored 28 for Xavier; Nika Lokica had 15 for Purdue FW.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Avery Wagner: Xavier 38%Purdue FW 62%
The white mark is the call with her: Purdue FW 64%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Purdue FW without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Purdue FW | ||||
| Avery Wagner | 0.7 | 62% | −2 | 76–80 |
 Xavier | ||||
| Diawna Carter-Hartley | 1.9 | 69% | +5 | 75–82 |
| Mya Moore | 1.6 | 68% | +4 | 75–81 |
| Maria Anais Rodriguez | 1.5 | 68% | +4 | 75–81 |
| Meri Kanerva | 1.3 | 68% | +4 | 75–81 |
Change is in Purdue FW's win chance, in points. Scores read Xavier, then Purdue FW. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Xavier
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Purdue FW
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Xavier | Purdue FW | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 96.9 100th | 88.6 207th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 92.6 143rd | 97.8 250th |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 234th | 73.2 84th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.7% 16th | 45.6% 165th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.7% 134th | 43.7% 72nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.6% 103rd | 23.2% 158th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.0% 83rd | 28.8% 347th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 128th | 0.21 163rd |
The widest gap: Xavier's offense (100th) against Purdue FW's defense (250th), of 363 teams.
First half
Xavier led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 11.9 points and the total by 3.0.
- At halftime
- Xavier 43, Purdue FW 34
- Projected halftime score
- Xavier 36, Purdue FW 38
- First-half margin
- Purdue FW by 2.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Xavier
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucile JeromeG | 38 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 3 |
| Meri KanervaG | 38 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Diawna Carter-HartleyF | 27 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 |
| Kejia RanG | 24 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Kodee Williams-SefoG | 23 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Hila KarshG | 19 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Maria Anais RodriguezF | 17 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Marta MoscarellaG | 9 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Morgan JenkinsNA | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Purdue FW
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nika LokicaG | 36 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Avery WagnerF | 35 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 2 |
| Maddie LepleyG | 33 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Claire GregwerF | 28 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Meegan FahyG | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Karis ThomasG | 13 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Amaris TimmonsF | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Alyssa BerryG | 10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Bailee DuckG | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |