Valparaiso at Purdue FW
Women's · Friday, November 13, 2026, 11:00 AM ET at Hilliard Gates Sports Center. Valparaiso our rank 326 · 1-2; Purdue FW our rank 216 · 1-2.
Who will win Valparaiso vs Purdue FW?
The model gives Purdue Fort Wayne a 87% chance to beat Valparaiso, with a projected score of Purdue FW 75, Valparaiso 61.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purdue FW | |||||
| GregwerF · 31 min | 15.3 | 6.7 | 1.8 | 15+ 51% | |
| LokicaG · 29 min | 8.5 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 10+ 37% | |
| FahyG · 24 min | 7.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 5+ 69% | |
| ThomasG · 22 min | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 5+ 64% | |
| Valparaiso | |||||
| von SchlegellG · 27 min | 9.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 10+ 46% | |
| AllenF · 21 min | 7.6 | 5.4 | 1.1 | 5+ 70% | |
| NoguésG · 24 min | 6.9 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 5+ 65% | |
| Igbinedion OmoruyiC · 20 min | 6.9 | 4.6 | 0.3 | 5+ 64% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Avery Wagner: Valparaiso 14%Purdue FW 86%
The white mark is the call with her: Purdue FW 87%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Purdue FW without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purdue FW | ||||
| Avery Wagner | 0.7 | 86% | −1 | 61–74 |
Change is in Purdue FW's win chance, in points. Scores read Valparaiso, then Purdue FW. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Valparaiso 1-2LLW
- Nov 10W 89-47vs Culver Stockton
- Nov 7L 63-67vs Detroit Mercy
- Nov 3L 44-98at Michigan St
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 65.3 and allowing 70.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Valparaiso | Purdue FW | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 78.3 331st | 88.6 207th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.0 279th | 97.8 250th |
| Possessions a game | 74.8 16th | 73.2 84th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 42.5% 329th | 45.6% 165th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.1% 275th | 43.7% 72nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.3% 293rd | 23.2% 158th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.0% 280th | 28.8% 347th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.18 338th | 0.21 163rd |
The widest gap: Purdue FW's defense (250th) against Valparaiso's offense (331st), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Valparaiso 28, Purdue FW 36
- First-half margin
- Purdue FW by 8.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.3
- Projected second half
- Valparaiso 33, Purdue FW 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 71.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Valparaiso, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 27.0 scored, 31.7 allowed
- Purdue FW, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 31.0 scored, 40.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Valparaiso
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allia von SchlegellG | 27 | 9.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 40% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Maci RhoadesG | 25 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Jana NoguésG | 24 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Denza AllenF | 21 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 70% · 6+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Osadebamwen Igbinedion OmoruyiC | 20 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 46% | |||||
| Dani GuedetG | 18 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Maddie VejsickyG | 18 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Constanza AravenaG | 16 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
Purdue FW
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claire GregwerF | 31 | 15.3 | 6.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 7+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Nika LokicaG | 29 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Avery WagnerF | 24 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 6+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Maddie LepleyG | 24 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Meegan FahyG | 24 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 2+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Karis ThomasG | 22 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Amaris TimmonsF | 14 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Alyssa BerryG | 12 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 61% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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