Purdue FW at W Illinois
Women's · Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET at Western Hall. Purdue FW our rank 216 · 1-2; W Illinois our rank 205 · 3-1.
Who will win Purdue FW vs W Illinois?
The model gives Western Illinois a 67% chance to beat Purdue Fort Wayne, with a projected score of W Illinois 70, Purdue FW 65.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W Illinois | |||||
| NicastroF · 32 min | 18.2 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 20+ 39% | |
| DavisG · 27 min | 9.6 | 5.6 | 0.9 | 10+ 45% | |
| MesslingF · 24 min | 7.6 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 5+ 70% | |
| ReedG · 32 min | 6.2 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 5+ 59% | |
| Purdue FW | |||||
| GregwerF · 32 min | 14.1 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 15+ 44% | |
| LokicaG · 30 min | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 10+ 32% | |
| FahyG · 24 min | 6.7 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 5+ 63% | |
| ThomasG · 23 min | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 5+ 58% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Mia Nicastro: Purdue FW 44%W Illinois 56%
The white mark is the call with her: W Illinois 67%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | W Illinois without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W Illinois | ||||
| Mia Nicastro | 3.4 | 56% | −11 | 66–68 |
| Madison Davis | 0.9 | 64% | −3 | 65–70 |
| Purdue FW | ||||
| Avery Wagner | 0.7 | 69% | +2 | 64–70 |
Change is in W Illinois's win chance, in points. Scores read Purdue FW, then W Illinois. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Purdue FW 1-2LLW
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 62.0 and allowing 72.7
W Illinois 3-1WLWW
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 62.8 and allowing 62.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Purdue FW | W Illinois | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 88.6 207th | 88.0 217th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 97.8 250th | 95.8 215th |
| Possessions a game | 73.2 84th | 71.8 200th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.6% 165th | 44.5% 249th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.7% 72nd | 45.5% 176th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.2% 158th | 24.8% 271st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.8% 347th | 30.5% 300th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 163rd | 0.20 252nd |
The widest gap: W Illinois's offense (217th) against Purdue FW's defense (250th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Purdue FW 30, W Illinois 34
- First-half margin
- W Illinois by 3.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.9
- Projected second half
- Purdue FW 34, W Illinois 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Purdue FW, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 31.0 scored, 40.0 allowed
- W Illinois, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 26.2 scored, 29.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Purdue FW
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claire GregwerF | 32 | 14.1 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 6+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Nika LokicaG | 30 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Avery WagnerF | 24 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Maddie LepleyG | 24 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Meegan FahyG | 24 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Karis ThomasG | 23 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Amaris TimmonsF | 13 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 52% | |||||
| Alyssa BerryG | 12 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
W Illinois
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaylen ReedG | 32 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 43% · 4+ ast 51% | |||||
| Mia NicastroF | 32 | 18.2 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 20+ pts 39% · 7+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Madison DavisG | 27 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 6+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Maria MesslingF | 24 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 70% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Shelby BowmanG | 20 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Sidney SkrobotF | 19 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
| Mylee StiefelG | 16 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Kennedy HerrigG | 15 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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