Loyola Chicago at W Illinois
Women's · Saturday, November 21, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Western Hall. Loyola Chicago our rank 244 · 2-1; W Illinois our rank 205 · 3-1.
Who will win Loyola Chicago vs W Illinois?
The model gives Western Illinois a 72% chance to beat Loyola Chicago, with a projected score of W Illinois 68, Loyola Chicago 61.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W Illinois | |||||
| NicastroF · 32 min | 17.8 | 6.9 | 2.0 | 20+ 38% | |
| DavisG · 26 min | 9.4 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 10+ 44% | |
| MesslingF · 24 min | 7.4 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 5+ 69% | |
| ReedG · 32 min | 6.1 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 5+ 57% | |
| Loyola Chicago | |||||
| VaughnF · 25 min | 8.5 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 10+ 37% | |
| NtambueG · 31 min | 8.4 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 10+ 36% | |
| MercilleG · 25 min | 6.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 5+ 62% | |
| Le FaouF · 21 min | 6.6 | 4.6 | 0.4 | 5+ 62% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Mia Nicastro: Loyola Chicago 38%W Illinois 62%
The white mark is the call with her: W Illinois 72%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | W Illinois without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W Illinois | ||||
| Mia Nicastro | 3.4 | 62% | −10 | 63–67 |
| Madison Davis | 0.9 | 70% | −2 | 61–68 |
| Loyola Chicago | ||||
| Brooklyn Vaughn | 0.6 | 74% | +2 | 61–69 |
| MD Ntambue | 0.5 | 73% | +1 | 61–69 |
Change is in W Illinois's win chance, in points. Scores read Loyola Chicago, then W Illinois. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Loyola Chicago 2-1WLW
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 61.3 and allowing 71.3
W Illinois 3-1WLWW
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 62.8 and allowing 62.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Loyola Chicago | W Illinois | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 86.3 244th | 88.0 217th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 98.2 260th | 95.8 215th |
| Possessions a game | 71.0 285th | 71.8 200th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 43.2% 308th | 44.5% 249th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.9% 263rd | 45.5% 176th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.4% 297th | 24.8% 271st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.8% 136th | 30.5% 300th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 109th | 0.20 252nd |
The widest gap: W Illinois's offense (217th) against Loyola Chicago's defense (260th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Loyola Chicago 29, W Illinois 33
- First-half margin
- W Illinois by 4.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.3
- Projected second half
- Loyola Chicago 32, W Illinois 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 68.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Loyola Chicago, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 27.0 scored, 39.0 allowed
- W Illinois, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 26.2 scored, 29.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Loyola Chicago
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MD NtambueG | 31 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Mireia JuradoG | 30 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Rosalie MercilleG | 25 | 6.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 2+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 40% | |||||
| Brooklyn VaughnF | 25 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Angela Le FaouF | 21 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Kendall HendrixG | 19 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Gabby WilkeF | 17 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Gemma WichmannF | 17 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 6+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
W Illinois
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaylen ReedG | 32 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 42% · 4+ ast 50% | |||||
| Mia NicastroF | 32 | 17.8 | 6.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 20+ pts 38% · 7+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Madison DavisG | 26 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 6+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Maria MesslingF | 24 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Shelby BowmanG | 20 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Sidney SkrobotF | 19 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
| Mylee StiefelG | 16 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Kennedy HerrigG | 16 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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