Who will win UCLA vs St John's?
The model gives UCLA a 88% chance to beat St. John's, with a projected score of UCLA 72, St John's 57.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UCLA | |||||
| BettsF · 26 min | 11.1 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 10+ 56% | |
| GardinerF · 24 min | 10.2 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 10+ 50% | |
| BrownF · 23 min | 9.3 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 10+ 43% | |
| BransfordG · 26 min | 9.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 10+ 41% | |
 St John's | |||||
| PryorG · 26 min | 11.6 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 10+ 60% | |
| MooreG · 24 min | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 10+ 44% | |
| WyattF · 24 min | 7.2 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 5+ 66% | |
| GrantG · 23 min | 7.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 5+ 66% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Sienna Betts: UCLA 75%St John's 25%
The white mark is the call with her: UCLA 88%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | UCLA without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | ||||
| Sienna Betts | 5.8 | 75% | −13 | 69–60 |
| Donovyn Hunter | 5.0 | 77% | −11 | 69–60 |
| Addy Brown | 4.8 | 78% | −10 | 69–60 |
| Timea Gardiner | 4.8 | 78% | −10 | 69–60 |
| St John's | ||||
| Ny'Ceara Pryor | 4.7 | 94% | +6 | 74–55 |
| Brooke Moore | 3.0 | 92% | +4 | 73–56 |
| Sa'Mya Wyatt | 2.8 | 92% | +4 | 73–56 |
| Daniela Abies | 2.5 | 91% | +3 | 73–56 |
Change is in UCLA's win chance, in points. Scores read UCLA, then St John's. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
UCLA 3-0WWW
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 75.7 and allowing 46.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UCLA | St John's | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 111.7 15th | 102.4 55th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 72.8 4th | 83.4 50th |
| Possessions a game | 71.1 272nd | 70.8 296th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.0% 142nd | 46.8% 105th |
| Opponents' shooting | 41.2% 14th | 44.3% 108th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.4% 90th | 21.7% 49th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 36.1% 46th | 36.9% 32nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.17 353rd | 0.24 50th |
The widest gap: UCLA's defense (4th) against St John's's offense (55th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- UCLA 35, St John's 26
- First-half margin
- UCLA by 8.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.2
- Projected second half
- UCLA 37, St John's 31
- Second-half points, both teams
- 67.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- UCLA, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 37.0 scored, 24.0 allowed
- St John's, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 44.0 scored, 21.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
UCLA
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovyn HunterG | 28 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Sienna BettsF | 26 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 7+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| KK BransfordG | 26 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Elina AarnisaloG | 24 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 46% to play · 10+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Timea GardinerF | 24 | 10.2 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Addy BrownF | 23 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 6+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Somto OkaforG | 22 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Bonnie DeasG | 18 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
Missed the last game: Elina Aarnisalo (28 min a game).
St John's
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ny'Ceara PryorG | 26 | 11.6 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 50% · 5+ ast 43% | |||||
| Sa'Mya WyattF | 24 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 28% | |||||
| Brooke MooreG | 24 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Janeya GrantG | 23 | 7.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 2+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Yohana FamiF | 21 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
| Daniela AbiesF | 20 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 5+ reb 56% | |||||
| Olivia TuckerG | 20 | 7.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Sanaa TrippG | 16 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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